Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. (Zhifei Biological) is expected to experience a sharp decline in its 2025 net profit and non-net profit, ranging from 630% to 780%, with an estimated loss amounting to between 10.698 billion and 13.726 billion yuan. This potential loss could mark the company’s worst performance since its initial public offering.
In the “2025 Performance Forecast” released by Zhifei Biological on the 12th, it was indicated that “the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is expected to be a loss of 10,697.9361 million to 13,725.6538 million yuan, a decrease of 630% to 780% compared to the same period last year when it was a profit of 201.8478 million yuan; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be a loss of 10,554.3485 million to 13,541.4282 million yuan, down 630% to 780% from the same period last year when it was a profit of 199.1386 million yuan.”
The announcement explained the reasons for the loss by stating, “Due to factors such as decreasing willingness for vaccination among the public and increased vaccine hesitancy, the vaccine industry has undergone a significant adjustment, leading to lower-than-expected sales of the company’s main products and putting pressure on its performance year-on-year.”
According to a report in the Huaxia Times on January 18, Zhifei Biological’s potential loss in 2025 could set a new record for the worst performance since its listing.
The report mentioned that Zhifei Biological heavily relies on the marketing of HPV vaccines. After obtaining the agency for Merck’s quadrivalent HPV vaccine in 2011, exclusive agency rights for the nine-valent HPV vaccine in 2017, and expanding to shingles vaccines in 2023, its performance had been soaring. The company’s profit increased from 100 million yuan in 2016 to 8 billion yuan in 2023, with revenue growth rates surpassing 300% at one point. However, in 2024, the demand for HPV vaccines suddenly decreased, leading to a direct drop in revenue to 26.07 billion yuan, with a net profit of only 2 billion yuan. In 2025, the performance forecast anticipates a loss exceeding hundreds of billions.
Additionally, Zhifei Biological is facing a dual dilemma of inventory backlog and tight financial flows.
As indicated in the “2025 Third Quarter Report” released by Zhifei Biological last year, by the end of the third quarter of 2025, the company’s inventory amounted to 20.246 billion yuan, accounting for over 40% of the total assets, with a significant risk of expiration for a large amount of the nine-valent HPV vaccines due to shrinking market demand.
The third-quarter report also showed that as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the company’s total liabilities reached 16.786 billion yuan, with current liabilities at 12.885 billion yuan, short-term borrowings at 10.318 billion yuan, while cash and cash equivalents were only 2.498 billion yuan, indicating a substantial gap between short-term borrowings and cash.
To supplement its working capital and alleviate financial pressure, Zhifei Biological had to resort to bank loans urgently. On January 5, the company issued a notice regarding the application for a syndicated loan and the provision of guarantees by subsidiaries and related parties. The notice stated, “In order to replace the company’s existing financing and supplement daily operating funds, the company intends to apply for a total amount not exceeding 10.2 billion yuan with a term not exceeding 3 years of medium and long-term syndicated loans led by the China Agricultural Bank Chongqing Jiangbei Branch (hereinafter referred to as ‘China Agricultural Bank Chongqing Jiangbei Branch’).”
Apart from Zhifei Biological, the entire vaccine industry in China is facing challenges. The aforementioned report indicated that in 2025, the market capitalization of 14 A-share listed vaccine companies evaporated by hundreds of billions for the full year, with only 4 companies achieving positive growth in their net profits for the first three quarters, signaling the arrival of an industry downturn.
Citing an analysis from a senior industry expert in the vaccine sector, the report highlighted that vaccines are a long-term business, and commercialization is a lengthy trust-building process rather than a simple channel or marketing revolution. However, Chinese vaccine companies have mistakenly applied growth models of innovative drugs, marketing strategies of consumer goods, and high-valuation models of platform companies to operate in an industry with strong public attributes, a mismatch that is inevitably exposed after a market cool-down.
Public records show that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. was established in 2002 and went public on the Growth Enterprise Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in September 2010. It is the first privately-owned vaccine enterprise to be listed on the GEM, with products including recombinant novel coronavirus protein vaccines (CHO cells) (ZKWD), recombinant tuberculosis fusion protein (Yika), injectable bovine branch bacteria (Weika), and quadrivalent and nine-valent human papillomavirus vaccines (brewer’s yeast), among others.