On December 29th to 30th, the Chinese Communist Party conducted military exercises around the island of Taiwan, deploying coast guard ships to harass, while the Taiwanese military monitored the situation closely. Military experts believe that these exercises are completely different from actual combat, and the people of Taiwan will not be affected by the psychological warfare of the CCP.
In the morning of December 29th, the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command initiated the so-called “Just Mission-2025” exercise, dividing the surrounding areas of the Taiwan island into five major regions, covering the Taiwan Strait, the north, southwest, southeast of the Taiwan island, and the eastern sea area, advancing towards the island.
Chinese military experts stated that the exercises focused on conducting firepower coverage on targets such as Taiwanese warships and aircraft, missile positions, important military ports, ammunition depots, logistical facilities, sealing off important ports and passages around Taiwan, conducting simulated attacks on key figures of the “Taiwan Independence” movement, among other objectives.
On the same day, a fleet of Fujian Coast Guard ships sailed from neighboring waters around the Taiwan island, with the Coast Guard Administration releasing a map depicting their patrol around the island, symbolically encircling Taiwan with a “red China circle.” Mainland media described the action as “tightening the chain.”
However, online Chinese netizens did not follow the official narrative, with comments in the forums stating: “After this exercise, the nation seems united.” “I guarantee they won’t invade.” “They are bombing the sea again.” “More and more people think it’s just fishing.”
Taiwanese military expert Qi Leyi, in an interview with Dajiyuan, indicated that the exercise area designated this time is the closest to Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi’s visit in 2022. The main focus was on simulating strikes on Taiwan’s land. As it was an exercise, Taiwan did not offer any countermeasures, emphasizing the distinction between exercises and real combat.
Notably, during the airing of the exercise on the news program, images of Taipei 101 appeared.
Taipei 101 is a supertall skyscraper located in Xinyi District, Taipei City, Taiwan. It is currently the tallest building in Taiwan, with a height exceeding 500 meters and over 100 floors, ranking as the 11th tallest building globally.
Qi Leyi noted that the PLA’s simulated attacks on the northern part of Taiwan’s territory, including an area in the north and southwest sea airspace of Taiwan, where Taipei 101 is visible. The forces deployed involved escort ships, fighter-bombers, and unmanned aerial vehicles, with the imagery likely captured using long-range drones (military equipment can film from 150 kilometers away).
“In previous exercises, there were shots of Yushan [Taiwan’s highest mountain], which holds significant symbolism for Taiwan. Taipei 101 is an important target here, known by all Taiwanese people. It can be selected as a target for attacks across the strait. Thus, this is clearly psychological intimidation,” he stated.
Qi emphasized that as this was an exercise, Taiwan did not implement any countermeasures or electronic interference, only taking responsive measures to prevent the forces from entering within 24 nautical miles. Understanding the operational logic of the entire exercise is different from real combat. In actual combat, it would not be allowed to approach this closely, nor would Taiwan respond according to the enemy’s pace, making it difficult to assess the situation.
“The exercise ships probably approached within the 24-nautical-mile range tentatively, entered briefly and then withdrew. The aircraft would not come so close; even a few seconds in the designated area would achieve the objective. I don’t think they would linger for long. They might be planning the positioning of forces, believing their firepower can reach and missiles are within effective range. Therefore, these actions are mainly for deterrent purposes,” stated Qi.
According to the monitoring data released by the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan, from the morning of the 29th to the morning of the 30th, they detected 130 sorties of PLA aircraft, 14 warships, and 8 public service vessels active around the waters adjacent to Taiwan. Nine sorties were near the median line of the Taiwan Strait, forming an omni-directional encirclement, second only in scale to the 2024 Joint-Force Exercise 2024B. Additionally, a PLA airborne balloon was also detected operating at high altitude northwest of Keelung, with the national military monitoring the situation throughout.
At sea, the PLA dispatched 14 coast guard ships to harass in the northern and eastern waters of Taiwan. The Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration deployed an equal number of vessels to conduct one-on-one monitoring and enforced stringent measures for their expulsion.
The Defense Ministry reported that the PLA launched 27 rockets in two waves, with the landing zones in the north of Taiwan, the southwestern sea area, and even encroaching within the 24-nautical-mile adjacent zone, marking the closest live-fire shooting to Taiwan in history, illustrating a deliberate escalation of military pressure by the CCP.
Su Ziyun, Director of the Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s National Defense University, mentioned in an interview with Dajiyuan that the CCP aimed to breach the 24-nautical-mile adjacent zone and approach closer to the 12-nautical-mile territorial baseline, which violates international law. This highlights that the CCP is not on any “just mission” but instead an unjust aggressor, employing coercion tactics and psychological warfare, which will not affect the people of Taiwan.
He explained that while the exercises won’t involve direct attacks, there will be demonstrations of firepower and test-firings of ammunition. These exercises could transition into actual attacks or surprise assaults, a scenario that Taiwan has always been cautious about. The primary objective is to disrupt Taiwan’s international aviation operations and obstruct its air routes.
On the second day of the PLA’s encirclement exercise, which took place for 10 hours from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., live ammunition shooting exercises were conducted. According to statistics from Taiwan’s Civil Aeronautics Administration, the military exercises affected a total of 857 international flights and more than 100,000 passengers that day, with domestic flights to Kinmen and Matsu experiencing 65 and 14 flight schedule disruptions, respectively.
Su Ziyun analyzed that the military drills appeared rushed, suggesting internal tensions within the PLA, noticeable through the sudden nature of the exercises, including the disappearance of Dong Jun, the Defense Minister, from the official website (rumored to be dismissed), and the recent promotion of General Yang Zhibin as the Eastern Theater Command Commander on December 22.
Regarding the timing of the exercises just before the New Year, Qi Leyi pointed out that it correlates with the significant escalation in military cooperation between Taiwan and the United States. The recent approval of arms sales to Taiwan by the U.S. was the largest in history, with the CCP viewing it as notably different from past deals. The sales not only included offensive weaponry for Taiwan but also tactical networks, packages related to the entire unit’s perception capability, embodying a concept of systemized operations.
Su Ziyun stated, “This reflects international support for Taiwan, making the CCP unable to sit still. Choosing this timing right before the New Year when Western democratic countries are on the Christmas and New Year holidays indicates the rush behind such military exercises. This could reflect potential issues within the military.”
Since Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te took office in May 2024, the CCP has increased military threats against Taiwan, drawing international attention. On December 17th, the U.S. announced a new round of arms sales to Taiwan, amounting to $11.1 billion.
On November 7th, during questioning by the Japanese Parliament, Prime Minister Yasunao Takichi stated that the CCP’s use of force against Taiwan could pose a “crisis of survival” for Japan, suggesting that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces could intervene with force.
On Monday, December 29th, U.S. President Trump, at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, responded to the PLA’s encirclement exercise around Taiwan, saying, “I’m not worried about anything.” Such exercises have been ongoing for 20 years. He mentioned not receiving any information from Xi Jinping about the exercises.
Su Ziyun emphasized that the Taiwanese people must not fall for the CCP’s tactical provocations. Taiwan’s response includes:
Firstly, Taiwan will not provoke, showcasing to the international community that the CCP is the trouble-maker.
Secondly, Taiwan will prepare for the worst and be best equipped. Strengthening self-defense capability is essential to possess a peaceful force.
Thirdly, Taiwan will further connect with the international community to not be swayed by the CCP’s psychological warfare. Particularly, the support of the U.S. for Taiwan, diplomatic breakthroughs in Europe, and the potential re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Honduras under a new government, all bode well for Taiwan in the current trends.
Reflecting on recent events, he mentioned, “The Taiwanese people are lovely; they may have differing opinions in peacetime, but in the face of major threats or challenges, like the 921 earthquake or Typhoon Morakot, they will unite, showcasing the endearing unity of this nation.”