Dozens of congress members from both parties in the United States have issued warnings that the US-China relationship in 2026 may deteriorate again on issues such as trade, Taiwan, the supply chain, or other contentious matters. They fear that the current temporary truce in economic and trade matters may be difficult to sustain.
According to a report from Politico on Friday, congress members interviewed expressed concerns that the one-year trade truce reached between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in October after their meeting in South Korea is showing signs of instability. They are preparing to resume confrontations on trade, Taiwan, and cyber intrusion issues once Congress reconvenes in January next year.
Greg Stanton, a Democratic congressman from Arizona and a member of the House China Task Force, likened the situation to a heavyweight boxing match, stating, “We are in a brief intermission between rounds, but both sides need to be prepared for what comes next when the truce ends.”
Over 25 congress members, including those from the House China Task Force, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s East Asia subcommittee, and the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, were interviewed. Both Republican and Democratic members warned of imminent turbulence.
More than 20 congress members are skeptical about whether Xi Jinping will fulfill key promises made in October, such as reducing the export of precursor chemicals used for processing fentanyl to Mexico and purchasing agreed quantities of American agricultural products.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina emphasized, “The Chinese Communist authorities are never to be trusted. They always break agreements.”
Following the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea, tensions between the US and China have eased somewhat. Both parties have temporarily halted the previously imposed tariffs that had risen to triple-digit figures earlier this year. Restrictions on essential goods exports have been relaxed, with the US gaining access to rare earth materials while China obtained chip design software. Beijing also pledged to “expand agricultural trade,” reversing measures earlier in the year to suspend the import of American agricultural products.
However, several issues remain unresolved or have been put on hold during negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the rare earth trade agreement planned to be finalized before Thanksgiving has not materialized yet. The White House has not confirmed recent reports about the ByteDance company’s sale of TikTok by January 23.
Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen from New Hampshire, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stated, “Claims that our relationship with Beijing is in a stable period are simply incorrect.”
The White House is more optimistic about the prospects for US-China trade. In a statement, the White House mentioned that President Trump’s close relationship with Chairman Xi Jinping would help ensure both countries continue to make progress on existing agreements and resolve outstanding issues. The government will continue to monitor China’s compliance with the trade deals. However, the White House declined to comment on the TikTok deal.
Congress members interviewed pointed out four major issues that could potentially lead to a breakdown in US-China relations in the coming year:
Firstly, the soybean purchase dispute. American soybean farmers heavily rely on the Chinese market, but Beijing failed to fulfill commitments to resume purchases. China halted soybean purchases in May this year, causing difficulties for agricultural states like Illinois and Iowa. The White House claimed Xi Jinping pledged to buy 12 million tons between November and December, but actual purchases were only a small portion of the agreed amount.
Democratic Congressman Jill Tokuda from Hawaii commented that Beijing’s breach of promises “harmed American farmers and consumers,” making it a potential trigger for relationship turbulence. The new agreement deadline is set for February 28 next year.
Secondly, the Taiwan issue. Beijing has strengthened preparations for invading Taiwan, unveiling a new military amphibious ship system in October. Chinese fighter jets locked onto Japanese aircraft in the East China Sea in December.
Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna from California stated that China is “tightening the noose around the Taiwan island.” Seth Moulton, a Democratic Congressman from Massachusetts, also warned that increased hostility toward this US ally by Beijing would disrupt the US-China truce.
Thirdly, export restrictions. Despite relaxing rare earth exports, China could reimpose blockades at any time. Several congress members are concerned that Beijing may use this as leverage or expand to the pharmaceutical sector—80% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for the US are supplied by China.
Republican Congressman Nathaniel Moran from Texas pointed out that China could “shut off the tap overnight.”
Lastly, Chinese military expansion. With the Chinese navy now the largest in the world, its third aircraft carrier, the “Fujian,” was commissioned this year with advanced electromagnetic launchers.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated this month that the US must protect Indo-Pacific allies from the threat posed by Beijing’s “historic military construction.”
Many congress members believe that China’s military expansion goals are incompatible with US efforts to maintain stable relations. Moran emphasized, “China’s long-term goal is global economic, diplomatic, and military dominance, viewing the US as a rival.”