On Tuesday, December 23, the international copper price broke through the $12,000 per ton mark for the first time, reaching a historic high and poised to achieve the largest annual increase since 2009.
On Tuesday, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 2% to touch $12,159.50 per ton. The cumulative increase so far this year has exceeded one-third. The market widely believes that the possibility of the United States imposing tariffs on copper is a core factor driving up prices. With a significant increase in copper imports to the United States, global manufacturers are forced to bid competitively to ensure supply, further intensifying market tension.
China accounts for about half of the world’s copper consumption. Although demand for copper in China has clearly declined, it has not been able to stop this upward trend. Copper has always been seen as an important indicator of global industrial activity, and the market generally expects copper prices to continue to rise as traders export large quantities of copper to the United States to avoid potential tariffs.
Furthermore, setbacks in copper supply have strengthened concerns about structural shortages in the market. The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo saw a surge in production earlier this year, but in May, mining operations suffered heavy damage due to flooding caused by an earthquake.
On July 31, a rock explosion occurred at the largest mine under the Chilean state-owned copper company Codelco, resulting in six deaths and a shutdown of over a week. Despite the resumption of mining operations, this was the most serious accident in Chilean copper industry in decades, posing a significant setback to its production recovery.
Moreover, in September of this year, a large-scale deadly mudslide caused the Grasberg copper mine of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in Indonesia to halt production.
Currently, several mining companies have lowered their production expectations. Deutsche Bank warns that the production of the world’s largest miners will decrease by 3% this year and may decrease again in 2026.
In fact, global copper inventories are currently sufficient, but analysts at Morgan Stanley warn that the global copper market will face the most serious supply shortage in over 20 years next year. Demand may exceed supply by about 600,000 tons, and the gap is expected to widen further.
For years, copper supply risks have always been a major concern in the copper industry. Now, rapidly growing industries such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence are expected to significantly increase demand for copper. Citigroup has advised clients that with the situation of a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts in the United States attracting active investors to the market, copper prices could reach $15,000 per ton.
Nevertheless, some analysts caution the market to remain vigilant. Goldman Sachs points out that this upward trend reflects more of investors’ bets on future supply tightness rather than a genuine response to the current supply-demand situation.
Despite this, Goldman Sachs still considers copper as the preferred industrial metal and raised its copper price forecast for next year to $11,400 per ton in mid-December.
As of the close on Tuesday, LME copper prices rose to $11,925.00 per ton. Other industrial metals also rose in sync, with nickel prices at one point increasing by 4.6%, continuing the strong upward trend seen after Indonesia proposed a reduction in nickel mining production in 2026.