The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday, November 21, that due to the 43-day government shutdown which prevented the normal collection of data, the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the October employment report has been cancelled.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history severely impacted the collection and publication of various key economic data, according to Reuters. The CPI data is mainly collected through on-site visits to retailers such as supermarkets and phone interviews. With almost all employees on forced leave during the government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, work could not be carried out. Additionally, these survey data cannot be retroactively completed. Consequently, the unemployment rate data for October will also forever remain missing.
The BLS stated in a release that although some data can be replaced with non-survey sources, most of the October CPI data cannot be salvaged. The agency plans to release some partially retrievable October data alongside the November 2025 data.
As a result, the November CPI report scheduled for December 10 will be delayed until December 18; the October non-farm employment data will be merged with the November employment report and released together on December 16. The BLS only released the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, on Thursday, November 20, significantly delayed due to the government shutdown.
The third-quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) report is still set to be released on December 10. This index is considered the broadest measure of labor costs and serves as a crucial reference for the Federal Reserve in assessing labor market conditions and predicting core inflation.
The data gap resulting from the halted reports will directly affect the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate meeting of the year, scheduled for December 9-10. The lack of the latest federal employment and inflation data will complicate rate decisions, as the Fed will have to rely on scattered private sector data and the Employment Cost Index report.
Internally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is deeply divided on issues like whether to cut interest rates again. In September and October, the Fed had already made consecutive rate cuts.
Meanwhile, President Trump has publicly stated multiple times recently that if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had not declined, he would have already dismissed Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Powell’s position is protected by federal law and can only be removed if there is serious misconduct, not simply due to disagreements with the president. Powell’s chairmanship is set to end in May next year, and Trump is expected to nominate a successor soon. Currently, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller are among the final candidates.
The BLS emphasized that the data loss is solely due to the government shutdown and not related to data quality. In the coming weeks, market participants will closely follow the delayed release of the November employment and CPI data to assess whether the Fed will cut interest rates for the third time before the end of the year.