On the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of Feitian Moutai liquor bottles in 2025 once again dropped below the breakeven line to 1790 yuan per bottle, down from 1800 yuan per bottle. During the National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival, sales were dismal. Many distributors were forced to reduce prices and sell at a loss. They expressed that the Baijiu (Chinese white liquor) market was unusually sluggish this year, closely related to the alcohol ban, rising unemployment rates, and economic downturn.
Looking back at the price trend this year, in March, a box of Feitian Moutai was priced at around 2300 yuan per bottle, and loose bottles were around 2200 yuan per bottle, marking the highest price up to that point. By mid-June, loose bottle prices fell below the 2000 yuan mark, and by late June, it dropped further to 1780 yuan per bottle.
The Mid-Autumn Festival and Chinese New Year are the two peak seasons for baijiu sales, but this year’s Mid-Autumn market has resulted in huge losses for distributors. Many distributors have shifted to online platforms for sales, even if it means selling at a loss to clear inventory.
Distributor Wang Xue, who chose to remain anonymous, told Dajiyuan, “In the past, Mid-Autumn was a time when Moutai sold well, but this year, everyone is wiping out each other, unable to make profits, entering a vicious cycle.” She also mentioned that if Moutai, which is already incurring losses, is still being sold online through platforms, it will lead to significant losses.
According to a report by Sina Finance, terminal sales of Guizhou Moutai liquor in September increased by more than 20% year-on-year. However, distributors have expressed doubts, believing that there is a significant gap between the data and reality.
Wang Xue gave an example, stating that in order for the factory to show good data for September, they would require distributors to manipulate the numbers. As a result, distributors stocked up on inventory but could not sell it, leading to a surplus in warehouses, while the factory’s financial reports indeed looked good. Ultimately, distributors unable to withstand the financial pressure had to sell at significant losses after the holidays.
Chang Jun, another distributor, stated that since the ban on alcohol was implemented in May, his business has plummeted. With over 6000 bottles in stock and cash flow difficulties, he had to promote sales on e-commerce platforms. Feitian Moutai was purchased at 1049 yuan per bottle and sold at a 50% discount online.
“For every bottle I’m losing a few hundred yuan, offering subsidies in the millions to clear out inventory so at least I can recover some money. In the second half of the year, I plan to focus on online development,” he said.
Some distributors are under pressure from bank loans and the sales pressure from the factory, forcing them to sell at a loss.
Wang Xue explained, “If the factory requires you to make payments and you are unable to do so, they may revoke your distributor qualification which will make it difficult to reapply. Therefore, some people have to sell at a loss.”
She analyzed three reasons for the weak sales during this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival: “First, the economic slowdown – people are short on cash, and all industries are facing difficulties. Second, young people are not drinking as much. The older generation, who could drink baijiu, are now having difficulties with it as well. The high-end baijiu market does not have room for volume growth. Third, the impact of the alcohol ban.”
Regarding the future price of Moutai, Wang Xue believes that the factory will take measures to stabilize the market, as otherwise, many distributors may consider exiting.