Taiwanese meteorologists said that according to the ECMWF, a European ensemble model, there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing near Guam and slowly moving towards Taiwan. The probability of it affecting Taiwan has increased from 10% on July 1 to 50% on July 4, posing a threat that requires close monitoring due to remaining uncertainties.
Associate Professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan, mentioned in the Weather Application Promotion Foundation’s “Weather Machine Classroom” column, that the latest ECMWF model simulation as of 8 p.m. on the 24th showed clear and partly cloudy weather with heat in various regions today. People should be cautious about sun protection and heatstroke prevention. There might be brief afternoon showers or thunderstorms in mountainous areas, and locally heavy rain is still possible in some areas.
Temperatures across different regions are expected to range from 23 to 37 degrees Celsius in the north, 24 to 36 degrees Celsius in the central region, 23 to 36 degrees Celsius in the south, and 23 to 36 degrees Celsius in the east. The latest model simulations indicate that on the 26th and 27th, a “cold-hearted low-pressure system” will move in, maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies with afternoon heat. However, as atmospheric instability increases, there is a chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms persisting into the evening.
From the 28th to the 30th, most areas will experience clear to partly cloudy weather with afternoon heat. The increased moisture near Taiwan may lead to localized afternoon showers or thunderstorms, with slightly enhanced convection and a slightly expanded impact range. Everyone is advised to pay attention to real-time information provided by the meteorological bureau for the next five days. On July 1st, the moisture levels are expected to decrease, bringing clear skies to most areas with a chance of occasional afternoon showers or thunderstorms in mountainous regions. Weather conditions from the 2nd to the 4th will depend on the development and path of tropical disturbances, necessitating continuous observation.
According to the latest ECMWF model, there is a developing “light typhoon” near Guam gradually heading towards Taiwan, with the probability of affecting Taiwan increasing from 10% on the 7th day (July 1) to 50% on the 10th day (July 4). The threat is intensifying, but uncertainties remain, emphasizing the need to closely monitor updates.
Furthermore, in the South China Sea, there is a chance of tropical disturbance development over the next three days (25th to 27th) with a probability of becoming a “light typhoon” below 30%, but even if named, it is expected to move towards Hainan Island and unlikely to impact Taiwan.
The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau warned that various regions are experiencing scorching temperatures today. Taipei City, New Taipei City, Changhua County, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City are under an orange heat warning, with a probability of continuous high temperatures of 36 degrees Celsius. It is advisable to take precautions. Taichung City, Yunlin County, Pingtung County, and Hualien County are under a yellow heat warning, and caution is recommended.