US and Japan announced on Friday that they are facing an increasingly severe strategic and nuclear threat environment due to escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, the two allies have formulated new guidelines for “extended deterrence.” In the Indo-Pacific region, China, Russia, and North Korea are actively pursuing military modernization and enhancing their “force projection” capabilities.
The joint statement released by the US State Department and the Japanese Foreign Ministry highlighted the two countries’ commitment to strengthening their alliance to “maintain regional stability and deter conflict outbreaks.” The alliance will continue to explore ways to ensure a strong and credible extended deterrence capability.
The newly unveiled “Guidelines for Extended Deterrence” are the outcome of long-term discussions under the framework of the Extended Deterrence Dialogue established in 2010. This bilateral framework aims to address the evolving security threats challenging the US-Japan alliance.
Details of the new guidelines have not been disclosed. Both the US and Japan emphasized that the document enhances strategic information sharing to ensure that adversaries understand clearly the determination and capabilities of the US-Japan alliance. These measures also include bolstering Japan’s defense capabilities, such as enhancing missile defense systems and readiness to respond to contingencies, to strengthen US extended deterrence.
Japan’s 2022 National Security Strategy incorporates a five-year defense build-up plan, with the 2025 fiscal year starting the third year of this program. Concurrent with the release of the joint statement, the Japanese cabinet approved a record-high $55 billion defense budget for the 2025 fiscal year. The total national budget bill exceeding $730 billion is expected to be submitted to the parliament for approval in March next year.
As part of Japan’s plans to enhance missile defense, $3.37 billion has been allocated to deploy missile interceptors and mobile surveillance radars on Okinawa Island.
Japan is also preparing to deploy US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles in the latter half of 2025, marking a crucial step in its quest for retaliatory capabilities.
The defense budget allocates $6 billion for the so-called “standoff” defense system, which includes long-range missiles, satellite constellations, and other advanced arsenal. Among them, $11.4 million is specifically earmarked for equipping Aegis destroyer ships with the capability to launch Tomahawk missiles.
This five-year strategy aims to double Japan’s annual military spending to approximately $63 billion, making Japan the world’s third-largest spender on defense after the US and China.
The new “Guidelines for Extended Deterrence,” coupled with Japan’s record defense budget, signify Japan’s alignment with the US to address the growing regional threats, reflecting concerns over China’s increasing military threats, North Korea’s continuous missile tests, and Russia’s activities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has candidly pointed out the shortcomings of the conventional deterrence framework.
In a recent interview with the Hudson Institute, Kishida warned that adversaries’ developments in nuclear weapons and delivery systems could undermine US extended deterrence.
Kishida has proposed establishing an “Asian version of NATO” to ensure a deterrent force against China, Russia, and North Korea’s nuclear alliance while also calling for a nuclear sharing agreement and considering the possibility of deploying US nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.