Confidential Memo: Trump Conviction Has No Impact on Swing State Election Situation

Former US President Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 counts in the “Hush Money Case,” becoming the first US former president to be convicted of serious crimes. Despite the attention drawn to his conviction by a classified memo, it has been reported that the verdict has had “no impact” on the electoral landscape of seven swing states.

The confidential memo, labeled as such, was submitted by political strategist and pollster Tony Fabrizio to the Trump campaign leadership on May 31. According to the document obtained by The Epoch Times, Fabrizio’s team has been monitoring the impact of Trump’s trial on voters in seven swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The same day the jury found Trump guilty on all 34 counts, Fabrizio noted a “sharp rise” in public interest in the trial. On May 29, 26% of respondents named the New York trial as their top news story, a figure which surged to 41% on the day the jury delivered the guilty verdict on May 30. Despite the media frenzy over the conviction, voters seemed to merely “shrug” at the guilty verdict, with Fabrizio stating that “it has had no impact on any vote.”

In all three rounds of polling tracked (six-way, four-way, and Trump-Biden head-to-head), Trump’s overall lead in the seven swing states not only remained intact but showed a slight advantage for Trump.

The most significant shift was observed in polling for the Trump-Biden head-to-head matchup. Between May 29 and 30, Trump’s support held steady at 48%, while Biden’s support dropped two percentage points, widening Trump’s lead by two points. In the other two polling rounds, Trump’s support increased by one point each. Although the margin of error in the polls remains unclear, the memo indicates that it aligns closely with the growth figures disclosed by Trump. This suggests that while the increase is not statistically significant, voter support for Trump in the seven swing states remains unaffected.

Fabrizio wrote in the memo, “The data indicates that Trump’s lead in each round of polling remains stable.”

Trump’s campaign team reportedly informed donors and supporters earlier this week that the trial’s impact in most swing states is “already settled,” adding that they anticipate minimal effects on voters from an unfavorable ruling.

Earlier this week, the US election forecasting firm Decision Desk projected that Trump would secure 235 electoral votes, Biden 226, with 77 votes still up for grabs. The firm also suggested that despite Biden holding the advantage of the incumbent and having a stronger campaign fund, Trump has a 58% chance of winning.

The content of Fabrizio’s memo sharply contrasts with a January survey conducted by Bloomberg-Morning Consult in the seven swing states, where 9% of Republican-leaning voters indicated they might not vote for Trump if convicted of serious crimes.

However, the current round of polling results align with the memo. The Real Clear Politics polling average as of June 1 shows Trump leading Biden by 3.1 points across the seven swing states. Compared to Fabrizio’s memo, this polling indicates a larger lead for Trump.

Although Trump’s conviction does not appear to have had a significant impact on the election, it has undeniably provided a substantial boost to his campaign fundraising efforts.

On Friday, Trump’s campaign team announced that they had raised nearly $53 million within 24 hours of the verdict being announced.

In a statement, the campaign highlighted that over a third of donors were first-time contributors. The statement emphasized, “Over $2 million every hour! … It is clear that more and more Americans are seeing through Biden’s election interference and joining Trump’s movement to save the country.”

The overwhelming support for Trump post-conviction resulted in an explosive surge in donations to the campaign team, causing the fundraising page to momentarily crash within minutes of the guilty verdict being handed down.

During a press conference held in New York that day, Trump emphasized the fundraising success and pointed out his lead over Biden in multiple polls. The former president also accused Biden of orchestrating the trial behind the scenes, stating, “You should understand one thing: it’s made by Biden and his people with the White House and the Department of Justice … all of it is done by Biden and his people.”

Biden has denied these allegations, stating at the White House, “It’s a state case, not a federal case. It’s a jury made up of 12 citizens, 12 Americans, 12 people just like you. … People who formed all the juries across America as millions have done over time.”

To further persuade swing state voters to support Trump in the election, his campaign team has launched a grassroots voter outreach initiative called “Trump Force 47,” aiming to mobilize highly targeted voters through a model of “neighborhood assistance.”

This strategy involves a volunteer-based voter canvassing effort in coordination with state and local Republican parties to secure voters in the crucial battleground states come November.

Trump’s campaign advisors Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles stated in a joint statement, “Supporters of Trump and Republicans are more energized than ever to lend their power to defending Trump against Biden and his corrupt liberal group, while supporting his mission to save our country from destruction.”

(English original:
Trump Conviction Has Had “No Impact” on How Americans Will Vote in Key States: Confidential Memo)