As the United States and Iran prepare for negotiations, the transportation of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed. The reopening of this key waterway is the central condition of this week’s temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. The current standstill has raised serious doubts among observers about Iran’s willingness to fulfill its commitments.
Currently, there are approximately 3,200 vessels backed up to the west of the strait, including 800 oil tankers and cargo ships. Due to uncertain navigational safety, these vessels are forced to remain idle in the area.
Analyst Matt Smith from the data intelligence company Kpler pointed out that recently no oil tankers dared to pass through. “We have not seen any oil products passing through; the strait is effectively closed, becoming a bargaining chip in Iran’s hands.” It is reported that only three vessels, mostly Iranian or dry bulk carriers, passed through on Thursday.
President Trump issued a warning, stating, “Iran has performed very poorly in allowing oil passage, even disgracefully. This is completely contrary to the agreement we have reached!”
According to data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), nearly 20,000 seafarers have been stranded in the Persian Gulf since the crisis began. Some vessels are forced to detour to Oman or UAE ports to avoid risks, increasing their journey by about two weeks and raising costs by 25%.
Approximately 20% of global oil supply relies on the Strait of Hormuz.
Smith analyzed that shipping companies have a much lower tolerance for risks than governments. “Even without mines, the threat of missiles and drones is enough to deter operators.” Moreover, the high cost of war risk insurance has become a practical obstacle to passage. Sultan Al Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, bluntly stated, “The Strait of Hormuz is not open; access is still controlled and restricted.”
According to the Financial Times, Iran has privately requested a $1 per barrel “cryptocurrency passage fee” for oil-carrying ships.
Fox News senior strategic analyst and retired four-star general Jack Keane is pessimistic about the prospects of the ceasefire. Speaking on “Jesse Watters Late Night Show,” he pointed out that Tehran is using this time to ease pressure and test America’s resolve to engage in combat again.
“I do not trust the Iranians; they are experts in obfuscation and delaying deals, accustomed to being unreliable,” emphasized Keane. He stressed that the Trump administration must monitor the agreement’s implementation. “If this falls apart, we must have the courage to resolve it thoroughly.”
President Trump announced on Tuesday that, with Pakistan mediating, the planned “bombing and striking” against Iran has been postponed by two weeks. He stated on “Truth Social” that Iran’s “10-point proposal” is a viable basis for negotiations and emphasized that the US military has surpassed achieving all military objectives.
A high-level US-Iran meeting aiming for a permanent ceasefire is expected to take place in Pakistan this Saturday.