China’s live pig prices have been falling for 8 consecutive weeks, hitting a new low since 2019, with industry insiders stating that the pig farming sector is currently experiencing deep losses. Some have stated that the average loss per pig has exceeded 400 yuan. The news has become a hot topic on April 5th.
According to the report by the “Daily Economic News” on April 3, data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring 500 county wholesale markets and collection points showed that in the fourth week of March, the national average price of live pigs was 10.68 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 3.3% compared to the previous month and a 29.8% drop compared to the same period last year.
Wang Zuli, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and a scientist in the National Live Pig Industry Technology System, said, “This marks the eighth consecutive week of decline in live pig prices, reaching a new low since 2019.”
Market data provider Qianlongbao reported that on March 20, the average price of live pigs in China fell below 10 yuan for the first time, dropping to around 9.93 yuan per kilogram. By April 1, the average price of imported three-way live pigs in China was 9.38 yuan per kilogram, with Hainan Province being the lowest at 7.9 yuan per kilogram.
The continuous decline in live pig prices has led to losses in the pig farming industry. Xia Chenfeng, an analyst at Nongxin Shuzhi specializing in the live pig industry, stated that the industry is currently facing deep losses, affecting both individual and group pig farming enterprises. According to market data, by the end of March, the loss per standard weight live pig (approximately 120 kilograms) under self-breeding exceeded 300 yuan, while the loss for purchased piglets exceeded 200 yuan per head.
Ding Wenqiang, the person in charge of a breeding farm in Nanping City, Fujian Province, with an annual output of over 160,000 pigs, admitted to experiencing “extremely severe” losses. He mentioned that the industry has been deeply in the red since the Chinese New Year, and despite the widespread losses, many are still trying to persevere. Losing 300 yuan per pig on average is considered relatively good in the current situation.
Feng Yonghui, chief analyst and chairman of the Souchu Network/China Live Pig Early Warning Network, stated that under the self-breeding model, the average loss per head has exceeded 400 yuan.
Wang Zuli pointed out, “The industry is basically in a state of overall losses.”
In response to the losses, companies have begun actively reducing production capacity. According to an analysis by Guoxin Futures reported by The Paper on April 4, the collective farm plans for April continue to increase output, with the average weight starting to decline, indicating an active destocking strategy. Individual pig weights continue to rise, reflecting some reluctance to sell at lower prices. Looking at the average weight of pigs across the industry, the destocking progress remains slow. In the long run, the current peak season for piglet losses will accelerate the industry’s destocking process.
Zhuochuang Information predicts that the national market may show a downward trend in the next week. On the supply side, the output of live pigs may continue to increase, which could negatively affect market prices. On the demand side, downstream slaughter companies have relatively stable production, offering limited support to pig prices.
Wang Zuli mentioned that based on the analysis of supply and demand relationships and market sentiment, prices in the second half of the year are expected to be slightly higher than the first half. However, due to limited overall destocking capacity, any increase is likely to be modest, and overly high expectations should be avoided.