Renowned China observer Yu Maochun stated that there is a pattern in the trajectory of weapon development by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Every time the United States demonstrates overwhelming military power in actual combat, internal purges within the CCP military and defense research leadership follow, leading to boastful claims of a major leap in military strength by the CCP.
Yu Maochun, who previously served as the chief China analyst at the State Department during Donald Trump’s first term and currently serves as the director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute, highlighted in an article for The Washington Times that in recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran, Chinese-provided air defense networks, radar systems, and missile platforms have repeatedly underperformed when facing America’s stealth and electronic warfare capabilities.
During a public speech, President Trump mentioned the operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, saying that interference equipment from China and Russia was useless, leaving everyone wondering why they didn’t work. He stated, “One day, you will find out why they didn’t work, but they didn’t.”
These failures not only undermine the credibility of specific CCP military equipment but also expose significant gaps between CCP propaganda and actual capabilities.
Instead of reflection, the CCP chooses internal purges and disturbances, initiating large-scale purges within military leadership and the defense research system.
Following the U.S. operation in Venezuela in early January, a large number of senior CCP generals have been “disappeared,” including top-level commanders. During the “two sessions” in early March, only 6 out of 26 generals appeared publicly, with the rest absent. Out of the 6 military members of the CCP Central Military Commission, 4 have been purged consecutively in the past few months.
Simultaneously, this purge has extended to the research and industrial core of the CCP’s weapon development system.
Since January, key figures in major CCP defense projects such as aircraft carrier construction, advanced fighter jet design, radar systems, air defense missiles, and strategic weapons have disappeared or been removed from the public eye. This includes key designers for advanced fighter jets like J-10 and J-20, chief radar and anti-stealth experts, senior air defense missile experts, and important figures in advanced nuclear weapon design. Dozens of similar cases have been reported.
Yu Maochun stated that the sudden disappearance of these individuals is not an isolated incident but rather a systematic dismantling of the leadership of CCP military modernization technology.
Moreover, top scientists in critical research fields have mysteriously died consecutively. In core areas of next-generation weapons such as hypersonic weapons and advanced aerodynamics, scientists who were actively working have suddenly passed away, raising speculation about the unknown causes of their deaths and highlighting the closed and high-pressure work environment of the CCP’s defense research system.
These events collectively point to a deeper issue, indicating that the CCP system does not allow acknowledging failures publicly. Therefore, when flaws are exposed, especially under the pressure of comparison with U.S. military capabilities, the response is not institutional reform but blaming individuals.
This cyclic pattern of political purges replacing technological innovation within the CCP will lead to more severe consequences.
“By eliminating experienced military leaders and weapons scientists, the system’s ability to learn and improve is severely weakened. The atmosphere of fear will suppress truthful reporting and critical analysis, leading to exaggeration and inefficiency, ultimately strengthening the failed version, making innovation even riskier as telling the truth becomes riskier than making mistakes,” the article stated.
The article explained that ultimately, U.S. military victories have a dual impact on the development of CCP weapons. They act as a catalyst, forcing the CCP to accelerate modernization and expand capabilities while functioning as stress tests, exposing structural weaknesses in the CCP’s control-focused system.
Each U.S. military victory not only widens the technological gap between the U.S. and China but also triggers internal instability within the CCP military and research systems.
“In the end, it creates a paradox: while the CCP desires to compete with the U.S. and drives incessantly ambitious military projects, it is this mobilizing effort and achievement-oriented system that also limits its probability of success,” Yu Maochun said. “The lack of transparent evaluation, genuine innovation, and institutional resilience keeps progress unbalanced and fragile.”
Yu Maochun stated that the CCP has long viewed the U.S. as its number one enemy, and its military modernization is not based on stable innovation but to a large extent, is accelerated reactively following U.S. military successes.
The article cited instances such as the shock that Beijing experienced after the 1991 Gulf War, realizing the decisive role of precision strikes, stealth technology, and network-centric warfare. Events like the 1999 U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia and the 2001 U.S.-China spy plane collision further highlighted the passivity and vulnerability of the CCP’s military, leading to accelerated investments in aerospace, cyber warfare, and anti-access capabilities.
“Every incident confirms a pattern: Chinese progress does not stem from continuous internal innovation but reactive responses to U.S. military successes,” the article stated.
Looking at China’s responses, whether after the Gulf War or more recent conflicts involving Iran and Venezuela, whenever the U.S. gains overwhelming superiority on the battlefield, the CCP initiates rushed modernization efforts and political purges.
“This pattern not only reflects strategic competition but also reveals deeper structural flaws within the Chinese Communist Party system,” he wrote.
Yu Maochun pointed out that the systemic weaknesses of the CCP inevitably constrain its military research and development efforts to a certain extent.
He listed several reasons for this. Firstly, the CCP struggles to achieve genuine innovation, heavily relying on reverse engineering and technology theft to develop.
Secondly, even when in possession of design blueprints, they cannot replicate them perfectly in engineering precision and material science to meet performance stability requirements.
Thirdly, the intended acceleration of civil-military integration ultimately breeds corruption and inefficiency in the defense domain, with the most severe consequence being the questioning of the quality and reliability of CCP military weapons.
Lastly, the political system built on propaganda fosters exaggeration and self-deception, masking its flaws until they are exposed in a real combat environment.
“As long as this situation persists, each demonstration of U.S. military superiority not only challenges Beijing externally but also shakes its stability internally, deepening the gap it attempts to bridge,” the Chinese observer added.