Recently, the United States and Israel have launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, rapidly altering the strategic landscape in the Middle East and drawing attention to the security situation in the Taiwan Strait. Experts analyze that this war’s impact on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) goes beyond the surface, affecting military confidence, weapon systems, combat experience, and energy supply. The possibility of immediate military action against Taiwan by Beijing remains limited.
In the military operation codenamed “Epic Fury,” the United States and Israel have carried out precise strikes against senior Iranian officials. It was recently revealed that Israel used the “Blue Sparrow” air-launched ballistic missile to successfully target Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his command center from hundreds of kilometers away. This missile, described as a “missile from space,” penetrates air defense systems with high speed and precision.
Following the assassination of Khamenei on February 28, the U.S. military continues to target the command structure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force.
Yuan Zongji, former dean of the Institute of Political Warfare at Taiwan’s National Defense University, told Epoch Times that in the latest offensive, the U.S. military once again “decapitated the new commanders of the Revolutionary Guard or some of the new command levels of the Quds Force,” leading to severe disruption of the Iranian military command system.
Yuan noted that with the command chain severely damaged, Iran’s missile and drone attack capabilities have been reduced by “about 90%.” Although Iran still refuses to surrender unconditionally and vows to continue resisting, the war may not be protracted under the joint air strikes of the U.S. and Israel.
He pointed out that the U.S. has decisively addressed the Iranian issue at this time because Iran’s uranium enrichment technology is nearing the threshold of developing nuclear weapons, prompting the international community to intervene at this critical juncture.
The developments on the Iranian battlefield are causing Beijing to reassess its military strength. Mark, a military commentator on the “Mark’s Chrono” program channel, highlighted that the frequency of Chinese military aircraft disrupting Taiwan has significantly decreased recently, partly due to Beijing choosing strategic restraint to avoid being seen as taking advantage of the U.S. in the Middle East conflict during this crisis.
Another reason is psychological shock. The analysis indicates that within the first hour of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28, Khamenei and over 40 senior officials were “annihilated,” starkly contrasting with China’s long-standing claim that “the U.S. dares not strike Iran,” forcing Beijing’s leadership to reassess the capabilities of the U.S. military.
“Even more impactful is the performance of Chinese-made weapons on the Iranian battlefield.” Zhou Ziding, a host of the “Military Intelligence Bureau” program channel, analyzed that Iran had long established its air defense system around Chinese radar systems (including the MiG radar and JY-27A, among others) and integrated Russian-made S-300 missiles. However, under the U.S. and Israeli offensives, this entire system quickly collapsed, rendering it virtually useless.
Yuan Zongji noted that when reporting to Xi Jinping in the past, the Chinese military industrial system often claimed that their weapons’ performance “surpasses that of the U.S. military,” but the actual battlefield performance showed a huge disparity. “With Xi Jinping’s personality, there will surely be a post-crisis reckoning,” and future actions may include a new round of purges and anti-corruption investigations targeting the military industrial complex and technology officers.
Furthermore, security vulnerabilities in the Chinese-made equipment used in Iran’s surveillance system were exposed. Israel infiltrated the traffic control and communication systems, tracking the movements of Khamenei’s bodyguards over a long period and eventually executing a precise strike. This realization has made Beijing aware that if similar flaws exist in its own surveillance system, external forces may already have infiltrated.
This conflict has once again highlighted the U.S. military’s superiority in technology and operational systems. In a press conference on March 2, the U.S. War Department disclosed that the military had targeted over 1,000 objectives within 24 hours. According to the responsible statecraft media outlet, attacks at this high density surpass traditional human decision-making capabilities, relying on AI-assisted combat systems.
This system can complete the entire process from target detection, identification, threat prioritization, to strike plan formulation within 20 minutes, while traditional operational procedures often take several hours. Experts point out that AI, data, and automated command systems are increasingly becoming the core competitive advantage in modern warfare.
Moreover, the U.S.-Israeli alliance demonstrated superiority in long-distance precision strikes in this battle. For example, Israel’s use of the “Blue Sparrow” missile enables strikes on high-value targets from hundreds of kilometers away, bypassing air defense systems. This precise decapitation capability makes it challenging for enemy leadership to ensure safety, even if they seek refuge in underground facilities.
In 2025, the British Financial Times revealed that China was constructing a large underground command center in the western suburbs of Beijing, dubbed “Beijing Military City” by Western intelligence agencies, covering about 6 square kilometers (1,500 acres), possibly ten times the size of the Pentagon, designed as a “doomsday bunker” for nuclear war. However, experts point out that in the face of high-precision bunker-busting weapons and long-range strike capabilities, reliance solely on underground shelters may not guarantee safety.
Beyond the military tremors, the Middle East situation may directly impact China’s energy security.
Taiwanese veteran political and economic commentator Wu Jialong informed Epoch Times that if China were to wage war against Taiwan, the first challenge it would face is energy supply.
China currently imports about 12% of its total oil from Iran and 3% from Venezuela, totaling approximately 15%. He stated that this oil is obtained at prices below the international market rate, with some Venezuelan oil supplied through a debt-mortgage scheme, almost free of charge.
Chen Shimin, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, further analyzed that conservatively estimating savings of $10 per barrel on 1 million barrels per day, China could save about $3 billion in energy costs per year. If the political situation in Iran or Venezuela changes, preventing China from obtaining cheap oil, energy costs could significantly rise.
He elaborated that China’s strong export performance in recent years, setting historic records in trade surpluses, is partly due to the low manufacturing costs enabled by cheap energy, allowing Chinese products to compete globally at lower prices. Once the supply of cheap oil is severed, this competitive advantage may diminish.
Beyond military and economic pressures, the internal power structure of the CCP also restricts its external military actions. Yuan Zongji pointed out that in recent years, the CCP has carried out large-scale purges among the military leadership, causing “almost none of the key senior military leaders with combat or major training experience to escape unscathed,” leading to new commanders needing time to control their forces and build military strength, even if they pledge loyalty to Xi Jinping.
Wu Jialong also noted that for the CCP to attack Taiwan, it would need the ability to replicate the precise decapitation operations of U.S. special forces and gain control of sea and air dominance, which the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks.
“Without sea and air superiority, there is no possibility for a military adventure against Taiwan.”
In terms of strategic positions, military commentator Zhou Ziding analyzed that the U.S. holds a defensive advantage in the Taiwan Strait scenario. The U.S. military simply needs to prevent the PLA from landing in Taiwan, while the CCP must cross the Taiwan Strait and dispatch a large number of ships and aircraft to contend for sea and air dominance.
Meanwhile, U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups can operate about 700-800 kilometers behind the first island chain, establishing defenses relying on bases in allied countries such as Japan, Nago Island, Ishigaki Island, and the Philippines’s Luzon Island.
Zhou summarized, “The offensive and defensive positions are extremely unfavorable for the CCP.”
In conclusion, based on observations from these experts, while the U.S.-Iran conflict brings new uncertainties to the global strategic landscape, it also exposes weaknesses in the CCP’s military system. From military capabilities, energy supply to internal political stability, Beijing is currently facing multiple pressures, potentially leading to a relatively stable situation in the Taiwan Strait in the short term.