With just over ten days until the early election for the Japanese House of Representatives on February 8, multiple latest polls indicate that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Sanae Takamich is maintaining a strong lead. Not only is the LDP coalition with the Japan Innovation Party expected to secure a stable majority, but the possibility of the LDP alone obtaining a majority is also rising.
According to joint surveys conducted by the Nikkei and Yomiuri newspapers after the start of the campaign, the LDP is ahead in about 40% of the 289 single-seat constituencies nationwide, with intense competition in over 150 constituencies against other parties. Including the proportional representation seats (totaling 176 seats), the LDP’s total seats could exceed the threshold of 233 seats for a majority, even approaching or surpassing the “stable majority” of 243 seats, enabling them to dominate committee appointments in the House of Representatives.
A large-scale telephone poll released by Kyodo News on Thursday, January 29, also reached a similar conclusion. Surveying approximately 162,000 eligible voters, the results indicate that the ruling coalition formed by the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party is expected to secure 233 or more seats out of the 465-seat House of Representatives, maintaining a majority. Before the election, the LDP had only 198 seats, together with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party totaling 232 seats, with just one seat shy of the majority.
Kyodo News data shows that LDP-supported candidates are leading in approximately 170 single-seat constituencies, surpassing the 138 constituencies they held before the dissolution. The proportional representation seats are also expected to exceed the 60 seats they had before the dissolution. However, about 20% of voters have yet to decide on their voting choices, indicating that there may still be fluctuations in the later stages of the election campaign.
Moreover, some surveys suggest that the Cabinet’s approval ratings may not necessarily translate entirely into proportional representation votes. The LDP’s support in the proportional vote is similar to past election periods where they failed to secure a majority on their own, leaving room for uncertainty in the final results.
Multiple polls consistently indicate that the newly formed “Center Reform Alliance” by the former largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and its former ruling ally Komeito, has not shown the anticipated integration effect. Due to its recent establishment and lack of widespread recognition, coupled with the challenging voting rates in traditional opposition strongholds such as Hokkaido and Tohoku during the harsh winter campaign period, the alliance is generally expected to struggle to expand its seats, possibly even falling below 100 seats.
Analysis by the Yomiuri newspaper points out that with the high support for the LDP, the opposition camp is experiencing division and competition in about 170 constituencies, with multiple opposition candidates splitting votes, objectively favoring the LDP’s victory. While the Japan Innovation Party retains an advantage in Osaka, its momentum in other regions may be lacking, potentially resulting in a decline in proportional representation seats.
Since becoming Prime Minister in October last year, Sanae Takamichi’s Cabinet approval ratings have remained at around 70%. Just three months after taking office, she announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives, seen as a critical test of her governance and leadership legitimacy. Takamichi has publicly stated that if the LDP and Japan Innovation Party fail to secure a majority, she will immediately resign as Prime Minister.
During the campaign, Takamichi has focused on expansionary fiscal policies, including increasing public investment, temporarily lowering the consumption tax on food to alleviate inflation pressures, and taking a tougher stance on defense and foreign policy.
While the election outcome may still be subject to changes due to the preferences of non-aligned voters, current polling trends indicate that the Takamichi Cabinet and the LDP are in a significantly advantageous position.