White House Expects Historic Tax Refund Surge as 2026 Tax Filing Begins

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) of the United States officially announced the start of the 2026 tax filing season on Monday, January 26. With the latest tax reform legislation in place, the White House expects this tax year to see the largest refund season in American history, with most taxpayers anticipated to receive significantly higher refund amounts than in previous years.

According to the IRS, approximately 164 million individual income tax returns for the 2025 tax year are expected to be filed before the federal deadline of April 15. The agency has highlighted that taxpayers can utilize various online tools and filing methods through the official website IRS.gov to handle their tax matters. The information systems have been upgraded to ensure the smooth implementation of tax filing and refund processes under the new tax laws.

The White House issued a statement on the same day, stating that millions of American taxpayers will see a “significant increase” in their refund amounts this tax season, following the enactment of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” signed by President Donald Trump in July last year. Numerous analyses cited by the White House project an average refund increase of at least $1,000 for the 2026 tax season, making it potentially the largest refund season in U.S. history.

The legislation includes various tax cuts and deduction measures, such as exempting tip and overtime income from taxation within certain income thresholds, providing additional pre-tax deductions for seniors, and allowing deductions for car loan interest payments, among others.

An analysis by the Tax Foundation shows that, due to these policies, the average refund amount per taxpayer for 2026 is projected to reach $3,800, significantly higher than the $3,052 in 2024 and $3,004 in 2023.

The IRS reminds taxpayers that most refunds can be issued within 21 days, but processing times may vary if further verification of filing information is required. The agency emphasizes that choosing Direct Deposit is the fastest way to receive refunds.

Following an executive order signed by Trump in March last year, the federal government has phased out the use of paper refund checks since September 30, opting for electronic transfers to reduce costs, delays, and fraud risks. Exceptions will only be made for those unable to access banking services or in specific emergency situations.

For taxpayers eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), the IRS expects that, if Direct Deposit is selected and no issues arise during filing, related refund payments could be received by March 2 at the latest.

Taxpayers can track their refund status through their IRS online accounts, the IRS2Go app, or the “Where’s My Refund?” tool. Some early filers may see estimated deposit times starting from February 21.

However, concerns remain about whether the IRS has sufficient manpower to handle the current tax season. An audit report released by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration in September last year noted a reduction of approximately 17% to 19% in key IRS departments’ staffing since January 2025, along with personnel losses in the IT department, which could impact tax processing efficiency and taxpayer services.

In response, Acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent stated that adjustments to forms and operational processes have been advanced by the Treasury Department and the IRS to ensure a smooth and orderly tax filing season in 2026. IRS Commissioner Frank Bisignano also mentioned that preparations have been made for the 2026 tax season and urged taxpayers to opt for electronic filing to enhance processing efficiency.