On January 24th, Zhang Youxia, member of the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of the Joint Staff Department, were under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law.” Analysts believe that General Secretary Xi Jinping and Zhang were driving a speeding car together, Xi taking down Zhang Youxia. What happens next could lead the Chinese Communist Party into chaos.
The People’s Liberation Army newspaper published a comment on January 24th, accusing Zhang Youxia of serious offenses, including “seriously betraying the trust and heavy responsibilities of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission, seriously undermining the Chairman responsibility system of the Military Commission, and seriously exacerbating political and corrupt issues that jeopardize the absolute leadership of the Party over the military and the Party’s governance foundation.”
Zhang Youxia has a close relationship with Xi Jinping. Xi and Zhang have been lifelong friends since childhood. During the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party in 2022, Xi Jinping broke with tradition to seek a third term, with Zhang Youxia’s support. Now, Xi Jinping has turned against Zhang Youxia, causing strong reactions from the public.
In a social media post, commentator Wen Rui described the relationship between Xi and Zhang as driving in the same car, with Xi controlling the steering wheel and Zhang sitting in the passenger seat.
He stated, “Xi Jinping dares not touch Zhang Youxia, otherwise the consequences would be disastrous. Zhang Youxia also dares Xi Jinping not to attack him, as the results would be equally devastating, hoping that Xi Jinping will step down at the 21st National Congress.”
The article pointed out that Zhang Youxia miscalculated, leading to Xi Jinping going on a fierce campaign against Zhang and his allies.
At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, the Military Commission had 7 members, with Xi Jinping as Chairman, Zhang Youxia and He Weidong as Vice Chairmen, and other members including Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin. Xi Jinping first targeted Li Shangfu, a subordinate of Zhang Youxia, then Zhang retaliated, leading to the downfall of Xi’s confidants Miao Hua and He Weidong. Finally, Xi Jinping launched a surprise attack on Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, leaving only 2 members in the Military Commission.
Wen Rui analyzed that while targeting Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli was relatively easy for Xi Jinping, the question remains on his next steps.
He argued, “In recent years, Zhang Youxia successfully cleared out Xi Jinping’s supporters within the military, with the current army being dominated by Zhang Youxia’s loyalists. In the process of eliminating Xi Jinping’s allies, only those directly or indirectly involved or verbally supportive have survived.”
He continued, “Even if someone had no direct involvement, in Xi Jinping’s eyes, they are Zhang Youxia’s accomplices. Therefore, after removing Zhang Youxia, Xi Jinping must conduct a purge within the military, as he would not feel secure otherwise.”
Wang Youqun, another commentator, stated that Xi taking down Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli placed himself in a precarious position, like standing on the edge of a volcano.
As of the morning of the 26th, top websites like Xinhua, CCTV, People’s Daily, and government websites still included Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli in their leadership frameworks. Wen Rui commented, “It’s too early to declare any side as the complete victor. The power struggles behind the scenes may be more intense than we imagine.”
Regarding the downfall of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, Wang Youqun mentioned that a significant number of senior generals have also been dismissed.
Since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, over 131 senior generals have been investigated by the Military Discipline Commission, not counting those who were retired or demoted.
Independent commentator Cai Shunkun revealed on a platform that Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, Xiao Tianliang, Zhong Shaojun, and 17 other senior officers were arrested, with the involvement of multiple agencies.
Currently, five of the seven members of the Central Military Commission have been investigated, a situation unprecedented in Chinese military history and globally.
Wen Rui concluded, “With Xi Jinping personally forming the 20th Central Military Commission, almost all members are being targeted for elimination, with Zhang Shengmin likely to be the next one to fall.”
In the context of “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun,” Wen Rui believes that the destruction of the Chinese Communist Party is only a matter of time at this point.