The Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China confirmed on January 24 that Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia and Chief of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli are under investigation for serious disciplinary and legal violations. As a representative figure of the “Second Red Generation,” Zhang Youxia’s downfall is seen as a symbolic event signaling a rift between Xi Jinping and traditional military factions. Analysts point out that this unprecedented cleansing involving multiple high-ranking generals reflects the intensification of power struggles within the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party.
According to the announcement from the Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China on January 24, Zhang Youxia, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, as well as Liu Zhenli, a member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of the Joint Staff Department, are under investigation for serious disciplinary and legal violations.
An editorial in the People’s Liberation Army Daily, reprinted by Xinhua News Agency, harshly characterized the two officials, stating that they violated the principle of the Chairman’s responsibility system of the Military Commission, undermining the political ideological foundation of the entire army, damaging the political ecology and combat readiness construction of the military, and causing significant harm to the ruling foundation of the Chinese Communist Party. Such stern official statements are relatively rare in recent high-level downfall cases.
This official announcement confirms the rumors circulating on the internet and overseas media in the past few days. The absence of Zhang and Liu at the opening ceremony of the provincial-level leading cadres’ thematic seminar on January 20 and the closing ceremony on January 23 sparked widespread speculation about their investigations.
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun revealed on January 23 via social media that the news of the investigation of Zhang Youxia and several high-ranking generals had been “confirmed,” mentioning the involvement of multiple departments including the Special Guard Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security and the Central Security Bureau.
Cai Shenkun disclosed in an interview with “Fangfei Time” on January 24 that through consultations with various knowledgeable sources within the system and combining information from different backgrounds, he confirmed that Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and 17 other senior generals had been detained.
According to various sources, the guards, staff, and secretaries around Zhang Youxia had already been replaced well in advance. This tactic of “cutting the hem first, then striking at the core” is considered a typical operation mode for purging dissidents. The swift confirmation of this news reflects the unprecedented scale and wide dissemination of this purge, making it difficult to completely seal off within the system.
Zhang Youxia was once seen as an important ally of Xi Jinping in the military, and his retention at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party was initially interpreted as supporting Xi Jinping’s re-election.
However, Cai Shenkun argued that Zhang Youxia’s retention was actually a result of a compromise at the top level of power.
According to his analysis, after the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping accelerated the purging of the military, targeting the promotion of Li Shangfu and rocket force generals by Zhang Youxia. Zhang Youxia used counter-surveillance methods to uncover economic issues and private discussions of Xi’s faction’s generals, using this information to challenge Xi. This inner struggle of “grabbing each other’s weaknesses” led to the publicization of conflicts between the two sides. As the 21st National Congress approaches, in order to ensure absolute control and prevent Zhang Youxia from dominating the next personnel reshuffle, Xi Jinping ultimately decided to eliminate this military faction.
Cai Shenkun suggested that the arrest operation was meticulously planned. Around January 16, the Central Security Bureau led the operation, with direct involvement from the Special Guard Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security and the Deputy Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, Liu Jinguo. The current director of the Central Security Bureau, Zhou Hongxu, who is highly regarded by Xi Jinping, tightly monitors senior leaders through the security system.
Cai Shenkun likened Zhang Youxia’s downfall to Xi Jinping’s “Lin Biao moment,” believing that this crackdown on the “Second Red Generation” and “Military Second Generation” cleared out the traditional political foundation within the party and isolated Xi Jinping. The military notification’s severe characterization, such as “severely damaging the Chairman’s responsibility system of the Military Commission,” eliminated any room for compromise.
Cai Shenkun predicted that the subsequent purges would continue, including the possibility that generals like Zhang Shengmin are already on the countdown. This extreme centralization has led to a complete imbalance in the system: the “absolute loyalty” shown by the new generation of generals out of fear is actually very fragile. When everyone within the system feels threatened, those closest to them could become key variables in changing the political landscape.
Additionally, the heated infighting within the military has had unexpected repercussions. Cai Shenkun believes that by no longer trusting generals who could mobilize the military, Xi Jinping has temporarily reduced the possibility of military adventurism, as authorizing generals to move troops could potentially threaten his personal power.