Despite the ongoing trade war with the United States, China’s released economic data indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5% in 2025, raising doubts from the outside world about the authenticity of the data. Experts pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) manipulates GDP data, and in reality, both internally and internationally, the CCP does not actually base decisions on this data.
On the morning of January 19th, the State Council Information Office of the CCP held a press conference, where the director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Kang Yi, stated that the preliminary calculation showed that the GDP for the whole of 2025 was 140.1879 trillion yuan, calculated at constant prices, representing a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year.
The CCP set the economic growth target for 2025 at about 5%, marking the third consecutive year that this target has been set officially.
Chinese affairs expert Wang He told Epoch Times that the precise alignment of the CCP’s announced GDP data with its original target is quite astonishing. Over the years, it has been widely believed that the CCP manipulates GDP data, rendering it unreliable and no more than a numbers game.
On the other hand, official data shows that China’s economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, broadly in line with the government’s annual growth target. However, the official growth rate for the fourth quarter is the lowest in three years.
Since the end of last year, under the prolonged drag of the real estate crisis, market confidence continues to be low, domestic demand is further weakening, and coupled with the impact of the US-China trade war, the overall deterioration of the Chinese economy is evident.
Economic growth is a crucial indicator of modern superpower competition, and the CCP has long acknowledged serious data fabrication.
In 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics of the CCP published an article stating, “We must use real and effective measures to combat statistical fabrication and falsification.”
The Financial Times quoted Professor Carsten Holz of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology as saying that the National Bureau of Statistics of the CCP had to make phone calls everywhere due to data errors, and “it appears that this problem has not been solved to this day.”
The report pointed out that the CCP still uses the outdated method of GDP calculation from the former Soviet Union—adding the value of raw materials input by state-owned factories to the value of goods produced by factories, which is backward.
It also mentioned that the authoritarian organizational atmosphere of the CCP will also reduce the credibility of the data.
On December 14th last year, the People’s Daily, the CCP’s official newspaper, published Xi Jinping’s speech at the Central Economic Work Conference on its front page. In the speech, Xi claimed to “pursue solid and substantial growth without any fluff,” yet at the same time, he “pre-determined” that China’s economic growth rate in 2025 would reach “about 5%.”
It is widely recognized that there is a widespread phenomenon of local government officials in China falsifying data to their superiors, and analysts have long believed that this is caused by the autocratic system of the CCP, where achievements serve as indicators for promotion or demotion.
The Rhodium Group, a US think tank, released a report at the end of last year stating that China’s real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) growth in 2025 ranged from 2.5% to 3.0%, approximately half of the CCP’s officially claimed growth rate of 5.2% up to the third quarter. The reason for halving the economic growth rate is due to a significant decline in fixed asset investment in the latter half of the year.
Due to the opaque operation of the CCP system, for years, the outside world’s judgment on China has oscillated between “a giant surpassing the West” and “a paper dragon on the brink of collapse.” However, a new book from Oxford University Press, “Business Warfare: How America Can Wield Global Economic Hegemony to Block China,” points out that China’s GDP is exaggerated by about a third, due to falsified performance data and unproductive investments.
Two scholars, Stephen Brooks and Ben Wagner, analyze the economic situation in China based on the concentration of nighttime lighting measured through satellite images because no one would manipulate nighttime lighting to falsify economic data, making it an objective source for observing the real situation on the ground. Their conclusion is that China’s actual GDP size may be only half that of the United States, not the two-thirds of the US as shown by official statistics.
Some Chinese scholars have also exposed economic growth fabrications, but have faced suppression as a result.
On December 12, 2024, Gao Shanwen, Chief Economist of Guotou Securities, spoke at a forum, saying: “We cannot know the true numbers of China’s economic growth. I personally speculate that the average actual GDP growth over the past two to three years may be around 2%, although the official figures are close to 5%.” Gao Shanwen was subsequently silenced.
The Wall Street Journal cited sources saying that Xi Jinping ordered an investigation into Gao Shanwen. The reason is that Xi was incensed by Gao’s public comments: firstly, questioning the reliability of China’s economic growth data, and secondly, believing that the CCP’s proclaimed 5% economic growth target was unattainable.
If the CCP continues to fabricate data in the long run, how much impact will it have on the Chinese economy?
Wang He explained to Epoch Times that the CCP has an internal system for reference, holding more accurate data for decision-making internally, while the external announcement of 5% serves as propaganda to brainwash the public and intimidate foreign countries. Otherwise, if even the top echelons of the CCP accept the 5% figure, it would lead to major decision-making mistakes, plunging the entire Chinese economy into a deeper crisis. “Over the years, the CCP has different internal and external practices.”
Wang He stated that international concern over China’s economic data fabrication exists, so international banks or some investors do not solely base their investment decisions on the official CCP data, but surely refer to other indicators they have determined for decision-making. However, since the CCP provides this data to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which all use official CCP data, some research results based on official data might exaggerate China’s economic performance. In recent years, some research institutions have adjusted the CCP’s official data, but the extent of these corrections varies, and “basically no country makes decisions about China based on the official CCP data.”
Sun Guoxiang, a professor in the Department of International Affairs and Business at Nanhua University in Taiwan, pointed out that in the long term, if the authorities continue to use target-oriented rather than fact-oriented approaches to handle statistics, it is easy to underestimate the seriousness of structural problems such as real estate adjustments, local government debt, unemployment, and declining productivity, further depressing the medium to long-term potential growth rate. Statistical distortion will also weaken the trust of private enterprises and residents in policies, suppress investment and consumption willingness, creating a vicious cycle of confidence and growth.
Sun Guoxiang stated that global businesses and financial institutions have to rely on alternative data and risk premiums to evaluate the Chinese market, leading to more cautious investment in China and rising capital costs. If Chinese data deviates from reality, it will cause systematic misjudgments by international organizations on global demand, carbon emissions, resource consumption, increasing the difficulty of global policy coordination. In conclusion, with unreliable official data, the CCP’s credibility and discourse power in the international financial system will be weakened.
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