The statement by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding “Taiwan’s situation” has stirred up a diplomatic storm between China and Japan, with Beijing employing various means such as economic retaliation to pressure Japan. However, reports from Japanese media indicate that Beijing’s retaliation has backfired, as it not only failed to change Takaichi’s position but also boosted her support in Japan.
The controversy began on November 7th last year when Takaichi stated during a parliamentary session that a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could be considered a “threat to Japan’s survival.” This declaration essentially provides legal grounds for Japan to intervene militarily in a Taiwan Strait conflict.
Subsequently, China implemented a series of economic retaliation measures against Japan, including issuing warnings to Chinese tourists to avoid visiting Japan, suspending the resumption of importing Japanese seafood, halting the approval of new Japanese films, and recently announcing a ban on exporting dual-use military-civilian items with potential military applications to Japan, including rare earth minerals. Beijing has also repeatedly demanded Takaichi retract her statement.
According to Nikkei Asia, since Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party does not hold a majority in both houses of the Japanese parliament, Beijing’s pressure is based on the belief within the Xi Jinping administration that the Takaichi government is relatively weak and will ultimately make concessions on this issue.
China’s propaganda department has manipulated state media to spread negative comments about Takaichi. CCTV’s “Xinwen Lianbo” has aired at least one piece of news criticizing Takaichi daily for a period of time.
Despite the retaliatory measures and propaganda offensive, China has failed to alter Takaichi’s government’s fundamental stance on Taiwan. Ironically, the Xi Jinping administration now faces a situation where their actions against Takaichi have inadvertently helped the Japanese Prime Minister maintain a high level of support.
Since taking office on October 21st last year, the Takaichi government has maintained a high level of public support. In a public opinion survey conducted by Nikkei and Tokyo TV from December 19th to 21st last year, the Takaichi Cabinet received an impressive 75% approval rating.
A survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun from November 21st to 23rd last year showed that the Takaichi Cabinet, after its formation, had a support rate of 72%, marking one of the highest ratings among Japanese cabinets in history. The survey indicated that a significant majority of respondents approved of the Takaichi government’s stance towards China.
Nikkei reports that the Xi Jinping team miscalculated, believing Takaichi to be weak and assuming she would eventually succumb to pressure from China. They also wanted to teach Takaichi a lesson. However, Xi Jinping’s actions have backfired, with the high support rate for the Takaichi Cabinet standing as clear evidence.
Now emboldened, Sanae Takaichi is preparing to focus on early elections to strengthen her ruling foundation and put aside the Japan-China relations issue. On Wednesday, January 14th, she officially conveyed her intention to dissolve the lower house before the end of January to senior members of the Liberal Democratic Party; if implemented, the Japanese election is likely to take place on February 8th or February 15th.
Nikkei predicts that China’s restrictions on rare earth exports to Japan are unlikely to become a major issue during the election campaign. It is expected that candidates from the ruling party and opposition parties will seek voter support by debating other issues.