According to a report released on Tuesday (13th) by the Brookings Institution, a US think tank, in 2025, the United States may have seen a negative net immigration population for the first time in 50 years.
Compared to the previous year, the number of people immigrating to the United States dropped significantly last year; increased immigration enforcement efforts led to a rise in both forced and voluntary deportations. The report estimates that the net immigration population in 2025 is approximately -295,000 to -10,000, marking the first time in at least half a century that a negative value has been recorded. It is projected that in 2026, the immigrant population will be around -925,000 to +185,000, likely remaining in the negative.
The report includes a predicted curve chart of immigration flow, showing the estimated numbers of annual migration in and out: in recent years, the highest net migration population was in 2023, with around 5.8 million immigrants arriving and 2.4 million leaving, resulting in a net migration of about 3.4 million. Additionally, in 2022, around 5 million immigrants arrived, 2.2 million left, resulting in a net migration of about 2.8 million; in 2024, the net migration population was about 4.6 million arriving and 2.6 million leaving, resulting in a net migration of about 2 million.
By 2025, the number of immigrants arriving is estimated to be around 2.6 million to 2.7 million, while departures are projected to be between 2.7 million to 2.9 million, resulting in the aforementioned negative net immigration population.
The report considers the different components of the total immigrant population each year, including parolees, NTA (Notice to Appear in Immigration Court), U4U (Unity for Ukraine program), CHNV (humanitarian parole projects for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela), undocumented arrivals, temporary visas, green cards issued only abroad, and incoming refugees.
The significant decrease in net immigration population is attributed to multiple factors:
Firstly, after the inauguration of the Trump administration, there was a reversal of the previous government’s open-door policy, with increased border enforcement leading to a sharp decline in illegal entries. Analysis estimates that in 2025, the number of undocumented entries is only around 22,000 to 39,000.
In contrast, during the 2023 fiscal year of the previous administration, there were 2.4 million illegal border crossings intercepted in the southern border, averaging over 6,500 people per day. Subsequently, under public pressure, the previous government set a threshold of 2,500 individuals per day; if the number of border crossers at the US-Mexico border exceeded this limit, asylum applications were closed until the number dropped to 1,500 for reopening.
Secondly, President Trump canceled the humanitarian parole projects of the previous administration. Analysis estimates the parole/NTA entry numbers in 2025 at 67,000 to 70,000, while it was 1.41 million in 2024; and it is anticipated to be around 26,000 to 53,000 in 2026.
Thirdly, there was a significant decrease in refugee inflows. With the exception of a few South African refugees, the Trump administration effectively suspended refugee intake programs. The analysis estimates refugee numbers in 2025 to be between 7,600 and 12,000, expected to drop to 1,200 to 7,500 in 2026.
Fourthly, there was a substantial decrease in green cards issued overseas, including categories such as family immigration, employment-based immigration, and diversity visas. About half of the permanent resident visas issued last year were granted to individuals residing within the United States.
The report estimates that about 560,000 to 575,000 overseas green cards were issued in 2025, compared to 670,000 in 2024. In 2026, due to several countries being subjected to comprehensive and partial travel bans, the issuance of overseas green cards is likely to continue decreasing.
Meanwhile, several factors, especially President Trump’s tough immigration policies, accelerated outward migration.
It is estimated that about 310,000 individuals were forcibly deported in 2025, slightly higher than the 285,000 in 2024; voluntary deportations exceeded the normal period by 210,000 to 405,000. According to the Department of Homeland Security’s statement in December last year, 2.5 million illegal immigrants left the United States in 2025.
The net immigration number estimated by the Brookings Institution in 2025 was significantly lower than the Congressional Budget Office’s projected 410,000, far less than the office’s previous estimate of 2 million, representing a substantial decrease.
Both the institution’s report and the Congressional Budget Office point out that the policies and actions of the Trump administration are the main reasons for the decline in net immigration numbers. The report also predicts that in 2026, with the implementation of Trump’s “Bigger and Better Act,” immigration enforcement agencies may increase infrastructure and personnel, leading to an increased number of deportations for illegal immigrants.