In the United States, the real estate market has been through over three years since being “walled off” by high interest rates. Many homeowners are eager to sell their houses as inventory gradually accumulates. Seller numbers have started to exceed buyer numbers, forcing sellers to accept a new reality. The new reality is that we are in the “price discovery” stage of the housing market, which is characterized by shifting dynamics. The upcoming disruption in this stage by what is dubbed the “Trump sword” is the main theme to be explored here.
In the recent months leading up to the end of the year (focusing on November and December 2025 data), the “seller versus buyer” gap in the US housing market has been widening. At a national level, the market is showing characteristics of a buyer’s market, with Redfin indicating a 37% surplus of sellers over buyers in November 2025 – a significant increase from the previous year. According to Redfin’s criteria (sellers exceeding buyers by more than 10%), this indicates a buyer’s market which has been ongoing since May 2025.
Realtor.com highlights that inventory has seen a year-over-year increase for 25 consecutive months (still at +12.6% in November 2025). Buyer momentum is weak, sales pace is slowing, and there is a rise in delistings, reflecting the tug of war between seller asking prices and buyer affordability.
In the November 2025 existing home sales report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there were 1.43 million housing units in inventory, a 7.5% annual increase. The supply months are around 4.2 months (up from 3.8 months year-over-year), indicating a relatively looser supply.
With both “seller delistings” and “buyer bargaining power increasing” simultaneously, buyers demanding discounts and subsidies while sellers are reluctant to lower their prices and delist, represent a “price discovery” process under supply and demand imbalances. Descriptions from Realtor.com and Redfin align with this structure.
The term “price discovery” refers to the process where buyers and sellers, after a period of probing, standoffs, and concessions, determine a price range where transactions can take place. The key is not the listing price but the price that both parties are willing to agree upon for a successful transaction.
Why is the current “price discovery” stage happening now, and what are the underlying reasons? At the core, there are three conditions driving it. And let me be honest with you – this stage is not going to pass quickly.
The era of price reductions is here! Sellers need to face the reality. The variable: how much will Trump lower interest rates? “Price discovery” is in the process of redefining the prices of American houses.