Holiday Shopping Season Aftermath: Surge in Returns, Where Do Return Policies Stand?

After a robust holiday shopping season, many consumers are now returning to stores, but this time it’s for returns.

According to a new report from market analysis company Adobe Analytics, online consumer spending totaled $257.8 billion from November 1 to December 31, up 6.8% year-over-year, setting a new record for e-commerce.

However, following Christmas, returns have started to rise. Adobe’s data shows that returns increased by 4.7% year-over-year from December 26 to 31. Additionally, Adobe’s research also suggests that return volumes are expected to continue increasing in the first weeks of January.

Adobe Digital Insights, the research and analysis division of Adobe, Chief Analyst Vivek Pandya pointed out, “The increase in returns after Christmas is completely expected and is a part of the overall shopping experience.”

According to a report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) in October, returns are projected to account for 16% of total merchandise sales in 2025, with a total return value reaching $849.9 billion.

NRF found that with the explosive growth of online shopping since the pandemic, the return rate for online purchases is even higher, reaching up to 19%.

For consumers, returns have become a crucial component of the shopping experience. In fact, more and more shoppers are buying items they never intended to keep.

According to a report by reverse logistics technology company Optoro in 2024, 56% of consumers buy multiple sizes or colors of the same item to increase the likelihood of finding a suitable item, and then return some, a practice known as “bracketing”.

Some shoppers take it a step further. Optoro’s data shows that 69% of people admit to engaging in “wardrobing”, where they purchase an item for a specific occasion, use it, and then return it.

NRF also found that nearly half of shoppers believe “bending the rules” during returns is acceptable.

Based on NRF’s data, 82% of consumers now say that free returns are an important factor to consider when shopping online, up from 76% a year ago.

NRF found that approximately 81% of shoppers review return policies before making a purchase; and 71% say a bad return experience would make them less likely to shop with the same retailer in the future.

However, experts point out that behaviors like “bracketing” and “wardrobing” pose significant challenges for retailers, impacting inventory management and causing revenue losses.

NRF’s data shows that to curb returns, 72% of merchants began charging return fees or restocking fees, or limiting return options.

(Adapted from CNBC’s report)