An unknown player made precise bets on the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, earning over $400,000 within hours.
This transaction took place on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform based on blockchain technology. The platform settles using cryptocurrencies and provides anonymity, with the player’s identity currently identified only by a string of digital wallet addresses.
Platform data shows that the anonymous account was created in December of last year and has made only four investments, all related to the situation in Venezuela. The player initially wagered $96 on the United States conducting an airstrike in Venezuela by the end of January, gradually increasing the bets over the following days. In the end, with a total wager of around $32,000, the player received a massive return of over $436,000.
Before news of potential US military action against Maduro emerged, the market experienced significant fluctuations. Last Friday (January 2nd), the probability of Maduro being ousted was only 6.5%. However, by the eve of midnight, this probability surged to 11% and dramatically increased in the early hours of January 3rd.
According to Reuters, this mysterious trade is likely to prompt scrutiny from US lawmakers who have been pushing for stricter insider trading regulations, including a bipartisan effort aimed at banning lawmakers from trading stocks.
Following reports of trades related to Maduro on Monday, Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres stated that he plans to introduce a bill this week banning elected officials, lawmakers, and federal employees from betting on prediction market platforms to prevent them from accessing substantial non-public information on such platforms.
Torres pointed out, “I plan to introduce a bill this week banning elected officials, lawmakers, and federal employees from betting on prediction market platforms because they may have access to significant non-public inside information there.”
The news of Maduro’s arrest not only benefited individual bettors but also boosted global financial markets. On Monday (January 5th), major US stock indexes rose across the board. Energy giants like Chevron, in particular, saw significant gains as the market anticipated their potential return to the Venezuelan market and capacity recovery.
Fueled by positive expectations for debt restructuring, Venezuelan government bonds and bonds issued by the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) surged, rising as much as 10 cents on the dollar with an increase of nearly 30%.
(Reference: BBC News)