The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) recently announced the new H-1B visa rules, which will take effect on February 27, 2026, and will be applicable to the H-1B lottery in March 2026. The most significant change in the new regulations is not in the number of slots or eligibility requirements but in the complete overhaul of the lottery system, which will now be weighted based on factors such as “salary” levels. Los Angeles immigration lawyer Chen Qigeng believes that this is one of the most far-reaching institutional adjustments in recent years, and it will significantly impact the chances of visa approval for workers in the U.S. and their strategies for staying in the country.
The U.S. government has announced the complete elimination of the random lottery system for H-1B visas, replacing it with a selection process based on “skills and salary” levels. This reform aims to prioritize issuing visas to high-wage, high-skilled foreign talents, and is considered a crucial measure of the Trump administration’s “America First” labor policy.
The previous H-1B random lottery system was sometimes abused by some U.S. employers, who primarily brought in foreign workers by paying them lower salaries than American employees. The new weighted selection system will better reflect the original intent of Congress in establishing the H-1B visa and will encourage employers to apply for high-wage, high-skilled foreign talents to enhance America’s competitiveness.
Chen Qigeng explains that the new system does not change the annual quota of 85,000 H-1B visas, nor is it designed for specific nationalities or groups. However, historical data shows that individuals born in India and mainland China have long been the main applicant groups for H-1B visas, so in practice, these groups will undoubtedly feel a more direct impact.
Furthermore, the core logic behind the government’s reform this time is to consider “whether companies are willing to pay high salaries” as an important indicator of talent value. The new system will incorporate the four salary levels (Level 1 to Level 4) set by the U.S. Department of Labor based on job position and work location into the lottery weighting system, with higher salary levels receiving more chances in the lottery.
Under the new rules, if an employer can only offer a Level 1 salary, the applicant will only have one chance in the lottery; if the salary reaches Level 4, they will have up to four chances, significantly increasing their chances of selection. Chen Qigeng points out that in the future, “salary levels will directly affect the chances of being selected.”
However, this design of the system also poses a challenge for newly entered work groups. Chen Qigeng analyzes that whether international students or local American graduates, the salary for their first job typically does not meet the high-level standards. Employers’ willingness to hire entry-level talents and bear the cost of H-1B applications will inevitably be affected.
Chen Qigeng believes that there is a structural gap between the ideal and the reality of the labor market: “Immigration law hopes to screen talent through salaries, but in reality, most graduates cannot initially secure high salaries, putting some qualified talents at a disadvantage in the system.”
Regarding the overall impact on the number of people affected, Chen Qigeng states that everyone participating in the H-1B lottery will be influenced by the new regulations, but the results may not necessarily be entirely negative. He points out that the new system, combined with the previous high $100,000 “head tax” policy implemented for some overseas assignments, has caused some foreign applications to exit the market.
“When some previously eligible cases are excluded, the overall application pool shrinks, leaving mostly individuals who have studied or worked in the U.S., which could potentially increase the actual rate of selection,” he says. If an employer has the capacity to pay Level 3 or Level 4 salaries, they may actually have a significant advantage under the new system.
However, Chen Qigeng also warns that even if one successfully obtains the H-1B visa, the risk is not eliminated. In recent years, there have been frequent layoffs in the tech industry, and whether it’s an H-1B, L-1, or other work-based non-immigrant visas, if the employment relationship with the employer is terminated, the individual’s legal status immediately faces challenges.
“Once you lose your job, you must find a new employer within a very short period, complete the status transfer, or you may be forced to leave the country,” he says, emphasizing that this is a harsh reality that international students and foreign professionals must face and address.
Therefore, Chen Qigeng stresses that the H-1B visa should never be seen as the sole option. If the goal is long-term stay and development in the U.S., one should early understand other parallel work visas or permanent residency pathways, create an overall plan, reduce reliance on a single system or employer.
“Work visas are essentially transitional tools, and what truly brings long-term stability is permanent residency status,” Chen Qigeng says. In an environment of tightening policies and highly fluctuating employment conditions, the earlier one plans and diversifies risks, the more control and advantage they can maintain amid system changes.
He says that the real impact of the new H-1B system will need to be verified by the results of the first lottery, but in the future, the path to staying in the U.S. will require more strategic and forward-thinking approaches, rather than relying solely on luck.