In 2025, major countries around the world have been increasing their military investments, seeking rapid growth in military strength to deal with various uncertain potential crises. While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has attempted to showcase its military power through parades and exercises, it has often faced embarrassments. In contrast, the deterrence of the US military has reached a new peak post-Cold War era.
In recent years, the US military has been rebuilding its advantage over the CCP’s military to maintain deterrence. Upon returning to the White House, Trump personally announced several new military projects and ordered B-2 bombers to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, rapidly establishing the most deterrent military force post-Cold War and shaping a distinct style for the US military, always ready for action.
Two months into President Trump’s term, on March 21, the US announced the plan for the American sixth-generation fighter jet F-47. The prototype of this X-shaped aircraft has been under development and testing since 2020. The plan includes the purchase of over 185 F-47 fighter jets with a combat radius exceeding 1,852 kilometers and a top speed exceeding Mach 2.
In September 2025, the first F-47 entered production. This will put considerable pressure on the CCP, as the J-20, despite being in production, is estimated to lack combat capabilities compared to the US fifth-generation fighters. In terms of quantity, the CCP still struggles to catch up with the US, and it seems they are about to fall into a new generation gap disadvantage.
On May 20, President Trump officially announced the Golden Dome system, a new type of space-based missile defense system project. The system structure includes ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and next-generation high-altitude ballistic tracking space sensors for air attacks; space-based interceptors for missile boosting interceptors; terminal interceptors; pre-emptive defeat measures against enemy missile launches; non-kinetic soft kill capabilities; and corresponding monitoring, management structures, and secure component supply chains.
On May 21, CCP’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maoning urged the US to “abandon” the project. In November, the CCP State Council Information Office released a white paper opposing the US pursuit of “absolute security.” In the same month, the US Strategic Command nominee believed that the Golden Dome system is crucial for ensuring the US’s second-strike nuclear capability.
The Golden Dome system signifies that the CCP’s plans to expand its nuclear weapons program might become futile, and their lack of defense capabilities will be further highlighted, making the CCP leadership even more reluctant to gamble their lives in a nuclear war. Whether the CCP is forced to engage in a defense system race or attempts to develop new attack methods, they will likely be dragged down faster, just like the former Soviet Union.
On June 13, with the tacit approval of the US, Israel launched “Operation Lion’s Rise,” conducting a large-scale airstrike on Iran, seizing air superiority and destroying its air defense system on June 21. President Trump decisively ordered B-2 bombers to launch “Operation Midnight Hammer” against Iran, using massive bunker buster bombs to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities in one fell swoop, delivering a lethal blow. Iran lost its capacity to challenge the US, significantly reducing its threat to other Middle Eastern countries.
Prior to this, President Trump had ordered a fierce airstrike on the Houthi group in Yemen, forcing them to surrender and promise not to disrupt the Red Sea channel. The US military action should have had a strong impact on the CCP, making them hesitate to aid Iran and its affiliated organizations promptly. If the CCP dares to start a war, the B-2 bombers can penetrate deep into Chinese territory for airstrikes, targeting CCP missile bases, nuclear facilities, among other critical objectives, potentially causing significant damage. The B-21 bombers are set to be put into service during President Trump’s term. Trump also confidently stated that the CCP would not attack Taiwan during his tenure.
In early December, the White House issued the “US National Security Strategy 2025,” clearly stating that the US “does not support any unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait” and will not accept Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia being “divided into two distinctly different war zones.” This implies that the US military’s mission is to keep the CCP’s military within the first island chain consistently to prevent them from gaining a “direct path to the second island chain.”
This to some extent breaks the strategic ambiguity of the US on the Taiwan issue, making it clear that the US cannot accept the CCP’s occupation of Taiwan.
On December 22, Trump announced the construction of a new type of battleship in the US as another new deterrent against the CCP. The new battleship is expected to have a displacement of 30,000 to 40,000 tons, carrying a large number of missiles, including longer-range cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, air defense missiles, potential new anti-ship missiles, as well as electromagnetic railguns and high-power laser weapons, among others.
Once the new battleship is commissioned, it should possess greater and more powerful maritime strike capabilities, significantly enhancing the US military’s rapid response capabilities and breaking the CCP’s so-called maritime denial means.
This move may force the CCP to join the race to build battleships in addition to carriers and destroyers, but the CCP has never built battleships before. If they attempt to imitate, it will further confuse their already chaotic naval strategy.
In his first year in office, President Trump identified several advantageous equipment projects and dared to take decisive actions. The US military has emphasized professionalism and has managed to advance its recruitment plans ahead of schedule. The US military’s deterrence is significantly increasing, while the CCP, on the other hand, is experiencing the opposite.
At the beginning of 2025, the CCP’s military did not issue the traditional No. 1 military order for the third consecutive year, and articles on the CCP military network even admit that they have been stagnant in low-level training. The so-called new equipment and main combat equipment showcased in the past year have not been impressive.
The Japanese Defense White Paper for 2025 revealed that the quantity of the CCP’s Dongfeng-26 intermediate-range missiles had increased from 140 in 2024 to 250, nearly doubling in number. However, the inventory of Dongfeng-17 missiles remained unchanged at 48, while the Dongfeng-21 missile inventory decreased from 134 in 2022 to 24 in 2024 and 2025. The once-touted as “aircraft carrier killer” Dongfeng-21D anti-ship missile has been missing for two consecutive years.
These changes align with the period when the Rocket Force was being purged, suggesting that during the investigation of corruption, the true performance of the Dongfeng-17 and Dongfeng-21 missiles may have been revealed. The CCP’s so-called deterrence strategy likely now relies mainly on the Dongfeng-26 missile. The Dongfeng-26, developed from the Dongfeng-21, still inherits the massive size and weight characteristics of Soviet/Russian missiles.
At the Beijing parade on September 3, the Thunder-1 air-launched missile, the Great Wave-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, the Dongfeng-61 and Dongfeng-31 land-based intercontinental missiles were promoted by the CCP as “ace weapons.”
The immense size of the Great Wave-3 submarine-launched missile was prominently displayed during the parade. However, the 094 nuclear submarine can only carry 12 of these missiles, showing a significant gap compared to US capabilities.
The Dongfeng-41 missile did not make an appearance, replaced by the Dongfeng-61 missile with a similar appearance. It is likely that the Dongfeng-41 missile did not meet the expected goals.
The Thunder-1 is a nuclear missile mounted on the air-launched Dongfeng-21 missile; however, the land-based Dongfeng-21 missile did not appear in this parade, indicating its ongoing phase-out. With limited options, the CCP’s Air Force may need to continue relying on the air-launched Dongfeng-21 missile.
Several new anti-ship missile models were showcased in the parade, including the Eagle Strike-15, Eagle Strike-17, Eagle Strike-19, and Eagle Strike-20, showing that the CCP may no longer have confidence in the previously imitated Russian anti-ship missiles like the Eagle Strike-83, Eagle Strike-91, Eagle Strike-12, and Eagle Strike-18, which had multiple models and were difficult to maintain.
On January 22, the CCP grandiosely announced the delivery of the 054B frigate to the navy. The 054B frigate is an improved version of the 054A frigate, and the CCP claimed it to be a new generation frigate, essential for the navy’s transformation and development.
The construction of CCP destroyers is accelerating, but the overall quantity and quality still lag significantly behind the US. Consequently, the CCP could only utilize the 054A/B frigates as placeholders, claiming the 054 is the first generation, 054A is the second generation, and 054B is the third generation, essentially admitting that the 054A is not modern enough.
The displacement of the 054B frigate increased to around 5,000 tons, with the total engine power also increased. However, the maximum speed still seems to be 28 knots, and the armament capacity has not improved, and its long-range combat capabilities have not significantly strengthened.
The 7,500-ton 052D destroyer is the mainstay of the CCP’s fleet but also has limited actual combat capabilities. On July 3, Xinhua reported that when the CCP warships visited Hong Kong, the 055 destroyer was described as “reaching” the world’s advanced level, but they did not dare to say it “exceeded” the world’s advanced level; the assessment of the 052D destroyer was merely described as having “outstanding” comprehensive combat capabilities.
On November 5, the CCP’s Fujian aircraft carrier was commissioned in Sanya, Hainan. Xinhua specifically mentioned that Xi Jinping personally decided to adopt electromagnetic catapult technology for the Fujian carrier. The report did not provide an overall evaluation of the Fujian carrier but only mentioned that its electromagnetic catapult technology is “at the world’s advanced level,” without claiming it is “ahead of the world’s advanced level.”
The Fujian carrier has started emulating US aircraft carriers but continues to use steam turbines as the main power source, with a heart system still in the style of the former Soviet Union. The launching and landing areas on the carrier slightly overlap. The CCP’s “Brick Family” claims that the Fujian, Shandong, and Liaoning carriers have achieved three upgrades, essentially acknowledging that the three carriers are experimental designs. However, the conventionally powered Fujian carrier insists on installing an electromagnetic catapult system, bearing the highest risk of trial stage.
On December 6, the Liaoning carrier-borne J-15 fighter intentionally illuminated Japanese F-15 fighters, a revelation made by CCTV. The Japanese F-15 fighters were approximately 50 kilometers away from the CCP’s training area, potentially causing extreme tension for the J-15 pilot. According to the track chart drawn by the CCP, if the scale is accurate, the J-15 circled a radius of about 50 kilometers with the carrier as the center, showing limited defense capabilities and posing another embarrassment.
On December 9, CCP and Russian bombers flew around the southwestern islands of Japan in a politically motivated exercise that defied basic military norms. The CCP’s two groups of J-16 fighters symbolically provided escort, yet only reached the edge of the first island chain, once again proving that the operational radius of the J-16 may be less than 1,000 kilometers instead of the claimed 1,850 kilometers.
Images released by the Japanese Defense Ministry showed that each side of the CCP’s J-16 fighter only carried one air-to-air missile, for a total of two missiles altogether. This reduction might have been due to the lack of refueling support during this incident, with the J-16 intentionally decreasing the usual load of four air-to-air missiles to ensure a safe return.
As a heavy fighter aircraft, the J-16’s operational radius suggests that the J-10, J-11, J-15, and J-35’s operational ranges might be even smaller. Without deploying the J-20, the CCP likely fears exposure. If the J-20 also has limited range and risks revealing its stealth capabilities, it would be even more embarrassing.
In 2025, most of the senior generals of the CCP’s military have been removed, with more senior and junior generals likely implicated. The end-of-year “US 2025 China Military Strength Report” analysis indicated that in 2024, China’s actual defense spending might range from $304 billion to $377 billion, but corruption is rampant. Investigations into corruption are likely to affect the combat efficiency of the People’s Liberation Army in the short term. The report revealed that corruption has led to cases of inadequate CCP military capabilities, including malfunctions in missile launch silo covers and potential submarines sinking during sea trials.
The report also mentioned that the CCP’s repeated investigations into military-industrial enterprises, initially focused on missile industries in 2023, have expanded to encompass nuclear industries, shipbuilding industries, and most of the military sectors, with the chief designer of the J-20 fighter and the CEO of their company both under investigation.
The CCP’s military equipment is becoming increasingly exposed due to widespread corruption, while new US military projects are further out of reach for the CCP. Thanks to an unprecedented purge, the CCP’s command system is starting to paralyze, while the US military is moving towards specialization, displaying increased readiness to take decisive actions. The evolving power balance between the Chinese and US militaries is expected to continue into 2026.