Recently, the Chinese Communist authorities held a promotion ceremony for top generals in Beijing, where only four generals attended along with the promotion of two individuals. Currently, there are only six active top generals remaining within the Chinese Communist military. Analysis suggests that the negative impact of the mass removal of generals may disrupt the military layout leading up to the upcoming 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
On December 22, the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party held a promotion ceremony where Yang Zhibin, Commander of the Eastern Theater Command, and Han Shengyan, Commander of the Central Theater Command, were promoted to the rank of general. This marked the first promotion of top generals within the Chinese Communist military this year.
It was noted by observers that Air Force Commander Chang Dingqiu, and Air Force Political Commissar Guo Puxiao, as well as over a dozen other top generals, did not attend the promotion ceremony. Alongside the two new generals, four other top generals were present at the ceremony, including Vice Chairman of the Military Commission Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shengmin, Commission Member Liu Zhenli, and Minister of National Defense Dong Jun.
The last promotion ceremony for top generals was held at the end of the previous year, with approximately 20 top generals in attendance. Within a year, 16 top generals were unable to attend the recent promotion ceremony.
In a post on platform X, independent commentator Xiangxiang remarked, “In less than a year, 16 top generals have ‘disappeared’. Xi Jinping’s ‘self-beheading’ is truly remarkable, creating a military miracle in world history, where numerous top generals have been removed without any war.”
American current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan expressed to Dajiyuan that with only six active top generals left in the entire military, the massive purge is actually a result of Xi Jinping’s own precarious situation. The 79 top generals promoted under Xi Jinping’s leadership have essentially been swept away. The only remaining active top generals are Minister of National Defense Dong Jun, as well as Vice Chairman of the Military Commission Zhang Youxia and Commission members Zhang Shengmin and Liu Zhenli.
“This is actually a selective mass cleansing of the Xi family’s military, it cannot be solely attributed to Xi Jinping himself. If it were the case, it would completely contradict the basic political logic and common sense. No authoritarian leader would completely destroy their own power base, like self-sabotaging their own martial skills,” he said.
Tang Jingyuan believes that while the current cleansing is targeting the top echelons of the military, the overall cleansing of the entire military system is far from over, with the eradication of entrenched influences being a lengthy process.
Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security Studies researcher Shen Mingshi told Dajiyuan that the frequent incidents involving active top generals within the Chinese Communist military will have negative repercussions on both military development and preparedness, leaving temporary replacements in a state of uncertainty and caution, leading to a more conservative approach in facing potential conflicts with Japan or Taiwan.
“So regardless of facing the escalating situation with Japan or preparing for potential conflicts with Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party is likely to take a more cautious approach. Even by 2027, if the personnel situation remains unsettled, it may impact the military layout leading up to the 21st National Congress,” he stated.
In a previous analysis, independent commentator Du Zheng stated that Xi Jinping personally promoted 79 top generals, almost half of which have fallen, becoming an international laughingstock with his authority completely undermined. Currently, the Central Military Commission is essentially under the sole control of Zhang Youxia. Although Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shengmin may outwardly show allegiance to Xi, “this power structure has marginalized Xi’s military authority, and if these two individuals were to turn disloyal, it would result in ‘guns dictating to the Party’ and ‘guns not protecting Xi’.”
Du Zheng pointed out that the current state of the Chinese military is one of shifting loyalties, with numerous ‘military tigers’ emerging, indicating a corrupt and decaying scenario within the Communist party’s military. “It’s clear even to the discerning that Xi promoted ‘big tigers’ while suffering from his own afflictions, leading to a loss of authority and irreparable damage.”
The newly promoted top generals, Yang Zhibin and Han Shengyan, both come from an Air Force background.
According to the South China Morning Post, among those present at the promotion ceremony were Major General Cai Zhijun, Chief of the Army Staff, and Major General Zhang Shuguang, Secretary of the Army Discipline Inspection Commission, expected to oversee army operations. Also in attendance were Major General Wang Gang, Chief of the Air Force Staff, and Major General Shi Honggan, Secretary of the Air Force Discipline Inspection Commission, expected to oversee military and political operations within the Air Force.
Prominent figures within the Air Force also include Major General Zhu Jun overseeing the Beijing Garrison Area and Major General Wen Dong overseeing the Xinjiang Military Region.
Tang Jingyuan mentioned that the Air Force system appears to have been relatively unaffected by the Ma Wen case. Ma Wen had primarily been involved in the Navy system and after serving as Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission in the Chinese Communist military, his favoritism leaned towards officials with naval backgrounds rather than those in the Air Force system.
Shen Mingshi, on the other hand, stated that despite the Air Force receiving noteworthy appointments, it does not imply immunity from corruption. This is evident as Air Force Commander Chang Dingqiu and Political Commissar Guo Puxiao have also faced repercussions.
In December 2023, former Air Force Commander Ding Laihang was removed from the National People’s Congress. Commanders from the Central Theater Command, Wang Qiang, and from the Western Theater Command, Li Fengbiao, both originated from the Air Force but were absent from the recent promotion ceremony of top generals.
On December 15, the Chinese Communist military announced an investigation into irregular procurement practices within the Air Force, with a focus on collusion or bribery related to material or service contracts.
According to reports by Nikkei Asia, Masashi Iida, Chief of the Theoretical Research Department at Japan’s Ministry of Defense Research Institute, stated that the rise of senior leaders within the Chinese Communist Air Force is related to the military dynamics concerning potential use of force against Taiwan. He also mentioned, “Air Force weaponry is expensive, which brings about many opportunities for corruption. While anti-corruption actions currently have limited impact on the Air Force, it is still possible that high-ranking officials may be purged.”