Today’s Focus: If there really is a Fifth Column? Lone Wolf Zhang Wen’s attack exposes Taiwan’s resilience crisis; Pay attention to those who are taking advantage of creating divisions; The CCP isolates Mayor Takamisoe Hiromae, suffering two defeats; Considerations for the US-China showdown after the mid-term elections?
Guest speaker in this episode: President of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Think Tank, Yabuta Akio; Host: Zhang Dongxu.
On December 19th, in a bustling area of Taipei, a indiscriminate attack by a lone wolf occurred, which is still under investigation. Public opinion is also discussing the possibility of a situation where the CCP instigates a Fifth Column, and whether Taiwan is prepared in terms of societal resilience.
Japanese approval rating for Mayor Takamisoe Hiromae remains above 70%, and recently, they jointly announced the Tokyo Declaration with five Central Asian countries to establish the Caspian Sea route, bypassing China and Russia. What implications might this have in the overall strategic layout involving the US, China, and Russia?
CCP Central Committee member Ma Xingrui has been absent from important high-level meetings consecutively. What does his disappearance signify?
There are signs of a significant increase in rural protests in China; with the country’s economy being described as entering a gig economy model, how might the changes at the grassroots level impact the CCP’s political situation?
On December 19th, a indiscriminate stabbing terrorist attack occurred in the bustling area of Taipei, shocking Taiwan and the international community, as it happened in a society known for high trust and safety. Reports mention that the suspect, Zhang Wen, meticulously planned and prepared for about two years, spent a year establishing bases and gathering supplies, striking at a sensitive time, planning to scatter police forces by starting fires and disguising himself multiple times.
Questions for President Yabuta Akio:
1. What are your general observations regarding this incident?
2. After the incident, there were overseas accounts appearing on the internet, claiming to be from the same organization, threatening to commit crimes elsewhere (Taichung, Kaohsiung). The police are continuing to investigate the motives behind the crimes and whether there were any accomplices. Observers like former Navy Marine Corps instructor and former Lightning Consultancy lecturer Peng Jieshen believe there are many suspicious points of premeditated murder, indicating detailed planning by the suspect, which differs greatly from the characteristics of “indiscriminate attacks” with no clear targets. The police have tentatively classified it as a random attack, with no initial evidence of accomplices, ruling out a terrorist attack. Regardless of the outcome of this case, it has sparked discussions on how Taiwan should prevent and respond to potential actions of the CCP’s Fifth Column infiltration. How does Mr. Yabuta view this?
Japan and five Central Asian countries held a summit in Tokyo on the 20th, passing the “Tokyo Declaration”, unanimously supporting the construction of the Caspian route to connect Central Asia with Europe without going through Russia, and announced a goal of a large-scale business plan worth “5 trillion yen over five years” (approximately 600 billion New Taiwan Dollars), as well as key mineral cooperation.
Kazakhstan’s President stated that Japan is a “trusted partner and close reliable friend”, and that Japan’s ongoing major reforms will further enhance its international standing.
However, in June of this year, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan, and the two sides signed 24 cooperation agreements involving energy, aerospace, digitization, customs supervision, agriculture, e-commerce, tourism, intellectual property rights, healthcare, media cooperation, and scientific research.
Questions for President Yabuta Akio: The five Central Asian countries were previously within Russia’s sphere of influence, but in recent years, the CCP has heavily invested in Central Asia. How do you view the strategic competition between the US, Japan, China, and Russia in the Central Asian region?
The approval rating of Mayor Takamisoe’s cabinet in Japan, according to the latest polls from Japanese media, is 67% from Mainichi Shimbun and 75% from Nikkei Shimbun, consistently over 70% for three consecutive months. Takamisoe Hiromae continues to reject the CCP and has not retracted his remarks regarding Taiwan.
What is the outlook for Japan-China relations? The US’ stance is crucial. US Secretary of State Rubio mentioned in a press conference on the 19th that Washington hopes to balance tensions and cooperation with China: he stated that both Washington and Beijing understand the necessity of cooperation, even though tensions may persist on many issues.
Rubio reiterated, “Japan is a close ally of the United States.” The US will find effective ways to cooperate with China without “jeopardizing or in any way compromising our firm commitment to Japan and other partners in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Questions for President Yabuta Akio:
1. How do you view the relationship between Japan and China? Some believe that the US is shifting in its approach to its relationship with China?
2. In the wake of Rubio’s recent statements, a series of actions from the US followed, starting with the White House National Security Report emphasizing no longer expecting economic cooperation to change the CCP, followed by Taiwan’s guaranteed implementation of the law, the US National Defense Authorization Act for 2026, and the largest-ever arms sale to Taiwan.
According to The Wall Street Journal, China is gradually becoming a gig economy country, with approximately 200 million people engaged in gig work (including self-employed individuals, delivery drivers, ride-hailing drivers, and live stream hosts), becoming one of the largest groups in China’s labor market and continuing to expand.
At the same time, social unrest is brewing. A research institute tracking social protests in China reported that as of the end of November, rural protest incidents this year had increased by 70% compared to the entire previous year. This year, the CCP officially highlighted the need to prevent large-scale rural migrant workers from returning to their hometowns, believed to be to prevent potential mass uprisings.
However, in 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and eight other departments jointly issued a document encouraging people from all walks of life, especially retired officials and professionals, to settle in rural areas.
Questions for President Yabuta Akio: With the changing economic model and the surge in rural protests, how might this affect the CCP regime and the future of China?
CCP Central Committee member Ma Xingrui was removed from his position as the Party Secretary of Xinjiang in July, with authorities stating he had been “appointed to another position.” However, it has been noted by outsiders that he has been absent from important high-level CCP meetings consecutively, leading to various interpretations and speculations.
Questions for President Yabuta Akio regarding this issue?
Recently, overseas Chinese internet celebrities have disclosed that they were approached by self-proclaimed intermediaries from a Beijing intelligence unit, revealing that the CCP has been paying them monthly to denigrate Taiwan militarily, and even pushing specific media outlets in Taiwan and the US to spread disinformation. The CCP aims to infiltrate through so-called “subtle influence”, with a wide range of internet celebrities being bribed, spanning various industries such as culinary, travel, and others; a similar situation has also been observed in Japan.
In fact, Western American internet celebrities have previously revealed instances of the CCP paying them to attack specific groups. This becomes an extension of infiltration and cross-border suppression.
This raises concerns about the CCP’s previous infiltration in Hong Kong, utilizing multiple layers of personnel model for infiltration such as the red line and gray line, with some individuals remaining deeply hidden and influencing critical moments without being easily noticed by the outside world.
Questions for President Yabuta Akio: Regarding this infiltration issue, could you share your insights? From this, can we infer the scale and funding of the CCP’s external bribery including institutions across many countries and regions, which could be quite astonishing?
You can watch the complete program here:
https://ntdvideo.tw/video?id=videos/542-A
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