In a post shared by Donald Trump on “Truth Media,” the latest trend of the second term of the Trump administration’s economy in the United States has once again far exceeded mainstream economists’ predictions. Data released by the Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that the annualized economic growth rate in the third quarter reached 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, marking the highest quarterly increase in two years.
The annualized GDP growth rate is usually the percentage increase in real GDP compared to the same period of the previous year, excluding inflation, which is an important indicator reflecting the economic situation. Trump indicated in his post that the economic growth wave he is leading suggests a significant increase in employment in the coming months, with these job opportunities expected to bring ample rewards. This economic recovery is expected to make a greater contribution to US GDP growth within the next year.
However, he also criticized in the post, stating, “In today’s market, good news often leads to stagnant or declining market conditions because the mindset of Wall Street decision-makers is no longer the same as before.” He explained that in the past, positive news would boost the stock market, but now it often triggers declines due to the belief that interest rates will be raised immediately to guard against “potential” inflation.
“A strong stock market, even a remarkable one, will not cause inflation – only foolish policies will! I hope the new Federal Reserve Chairman will cut rates when the market trends well, rather than destroying the stock market for no reason,” emphasized Trump, stating that he will help ensure the market continues on a positive trajectory without artificial hindrances.
The current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Trump’s requests regarding interest rates are not in alignment, and Powell’s term will end in May next year.
Trump’s success in the economic field has also received recognition from many political figures and financial experts, who express optimism about next year’s economic prospects. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich stated last Thursday on Fox News, “I would be shocked if we have not seen economic prosperity by next July.”
Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told Agence France-Presse that the new report from the Department of Commerce reflects the resilience of American consumers, indicating a positive outlook for 2026. She noted that if large-scale layoffs can be avoided, most American consumers can continue to spend.
Treasury Secretary Besent also predicts accelerated economic growth in the early part of next year. He told Fox News that inflation has been controlled and will stabilize, even decrease in the first half of next year; actual wages will rise, and the quality of life for Americans will begin to improve.
Bloomberg previously reported that 60 economists predicted the median percentage of annualized economic growth in the third quarter to be between 3.2% and 3.3%. This prediction was clearly too conservative, with a noticeable deviation from the actual growth rate.
Between the 12th and 17th of this month, Bloomberg surveyed 84 economists about their expectations for next year: the median GDP growth rate was 2%, up from 1.9% in the previous survey; expectations for the inflation rate, however, were adjusted slightly downward from 2.9% to 2.8%.
Economists’ expectations for interest rates remain unchanged, with the upper limit expected to be lowered to 3.25% by the end of 2026, below the current upper limit of 3.75%, indicating that policy will gradually relax over the next two years.
Stock analysts at JPMorgan generally predict that the S&P 500 index will reach 7,500 points by the end of 2026. The bank predicted in a research report released last Thursday that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice next year, by 25 basis points each time, which could drive the index up by 18%, maintaining double-digit percentage growth for the second consecutive year.