According to crime statistics experts, the number of murders in the United States has significantly decreased in 2025, possibly setting a record for the largest annual decline in history. Additionally, large-scale mass killings have also decreased drastically in 2025, reaching the lowest level since 2006.
This conclusion was drawn by crime statistics expert Jeff Asher after analyzing the Real-Time Crime Index data. The index compiles data from 570 law enforcement agencies, covering approximately 115 million people.
Based on the Real-Time Crime Index data reported by Axios news website on Wednesday, the number of murders has decreased by nearly 20% compared to the same period in 2024. The database does not include cases of self-defense, negligence, or accidental killings in its murder statistics.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is set to release official data on the number of murders in 2025 next year, but historically, estimates from the Real-Time Crime Index have been highly consistent with FBI data.
At the same time, the numbers of other crime categories have also seen a general decrease, including a 23.2% decline in motor vehicle theft, a 7.5% decrease in aggravated assaults, and an 18.3% decrease in robberies. These declines in crime numbers are evident across various regions of different population sizes in the United States. Overall, violent crime has decreased by over 10%, and property crime has decreased by over 12%.
When comparing these declines with FBI data since 1960, it is highly likely that 2025 will see the lowest recorded murder and property crime rates in the United States, as well as the lowest violent crime rate since the late 1960s.
Specific data for various cities shows that the number of murders has decreased by nearly 20% in New York City and Memphis, nearly 28% in Chicago, nearly 19% in Los Angeles County, and 7.5% in New Orleans.
Many cities have recorded their lowest levels of murders since the 1960s, such as Detroit being the lowest since 1964, Baltimore since 1962, Philadelphia since 1966, Oakland since 1967, and San Francisco likely at least since 1942. New Orleans may see the fewest number of murders since 1970. New York City reported the fewest recorded shooting incidents.
Meanwhile, data from the Gun Violence Archive shows that the number of shooting incidents this year has decreased by 17%, and fatalities from shootings have decreased by 13%. Preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) until May shows a 15.4% decrease in murder cases. Independent organizations such as the Council on Criminal Justice and the Major Cities Chiefs Association have also confirmed substantial declines in violent crime.
Asher stated that in 2024 and 2025, the number of murders in the United States may be about 12,000 lower than in 2020 and 2021, which represents significant progress, although there were still approximately 14,000 murders this year, far from ideal levels.
Despite the declining crime rates in most areas, a few cities, such as Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, have seen a 600% increase in murder rates.
President Trump has prioritized combating violent crime during his second term, deploying the National Guard to some cities across America to provide additional support in fighting crime. The murder rate in Washington D.C., the capital, has already decreased by nearly 28% this year.