On December 22nd, 2025, the international spot gold price broke through the $4400 per ounce mark during the global major market trading session, setting a new historical record. The price of gold has surged by approximately 65%–68% since the beginning of this year.
In the secondary market, the A-share precious metals sector opened high and strengthened on December 22nd, with several individual stocks showing active performance alongside the rise in gold prices.
In the domestic physical gold market in mainland China, as of December 22nd, Chow Tai Fook’s prices were quoted as follows: the price of pure gold was 1368 yuan per gram, the price of gold ornaments and gold bars was 1199 yuan per gram, the price of gold value-added services was 1160 yuan per gram, and the price of gold recycling services was 951 yuan per gram. Cai Bai jewelry quoted prices for pure gold jewelry ranged from 1320 yuan per gram to 1322 yuan per gram, and the price of pure gold jewelry bars was around 1108 yuan per gram. The above prices are based on the listed prices at each store.
According to the Daily Economic News, the increasing geopolitical tensions have boosted the appeal of precious metals as safe havens. The United States has intensified its sanctions on Venezuela’s oil, further pressuring President Maduro’s government.
Reported by Securities Times eCompany, experts generally believe that the continued gold purchases by global central banks have become a key variable in breaking the traditional supply-demand balance, and the Federal Reserve’s shift to loose monetary policy is expected to further benefit gold. In the long term, changes in the purchasing power of the dollar, central bank reserve behaviors, and geopolitical risks remain core factors influencing gold prices.
Moreover, confidence in a rate cut in January next year continues to decline in the market. According to the financial market data platform CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 has decreased, with a 79% probability of no change in rates. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by next March is 47.1%, with a 43.4% probability of no change in rates, and a 9.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.
While the short-term room for rate cuts is narrowing, factors such as changes in the purchasing power of the dollar, central bank reserve behaviors, and geopolitical risks are expected to continue influencing the trend of precious metal prices in the long run.
Institutional research reports generally believe that although the current price level of gold is not low, there has been no fundamental change in the medium to long-term upward logic. Guangfa Securities research points out that in the short term, post-previous sharp rises, position optimization may lead to temporary fluctuations in gold prices, but the long-term upward logic remains solid and even more stable under the resonance of multiple favorable factors.
Currently, the short-term position of gold is still relatively high, but after the volatility decreased following the pullback in October, short-term risks are lower. Without unexpected bullish factors, it is expected that London Gold will consolidate and fluctuate by the end of the year, reaching new highs in January next year.
Guolian Futures research believes that in the medium to long term, the core logic supporting the strength of precious metal prices (credit currency system restructuring, hedging demand for uncertainties in geopolitical and policy, ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, etc.) has not undergone fundamental changes, and the medium to long-term upward trend remains on a solid foundation. After the December Federal Reserve policy decision, the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) of $40 billion per month will provide market liquidity support, and the central trend of precious metal prices is still towards an upward trend.
Guolian Futures stated that uncertainties in the early period have basically been resolved, and under the support of macro-environment and hedging demand, gold is expected to gradually return to the previous upward trend amidst high-level fluctuations.
Foreign institutions are also optimistic about the future of gold. Analysts Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart from Goldman Sachs in their latest report stated that under the baseline scenario, gold prices are expected to rise further next year, with a target price of $4900 per ounce and upside risks.
Industry insiders point out that the precious metal market is not only affected by macroeconomic policies and capital factors but also reflects profound changes in global hedging and asset allocation trends. Despite increased short-term volatility, driven by fundamentals and expectations, the future trends of gold will continue to be closely watched.