Two NATO countries’ intelligence agencies suspect that Russia may be developing a new type of anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite constellation. They warn that Russia may be trying to disrupt the West’s space dominance by creating a destructive cloud of debris in orbit, a dominance that has proven beneficial for Ukraine on the battlefield.
According to Western intelligence seen by the Associated Press, this weapon known as the “zone effect” may attempt to deploy hundreds of thousands of high-density micro projectiles in the orbits where Starlink satellites operate, potentially incapacitating multiple satellites at once. However, such an attack could also result in catastrophic damage to other systems in orbit.
Analysts who have not seen the intelligence report expressed doubt about whether such a weapon could operate without causing chaos. This type of attack could impact businesses and countries that rely on satellites for communication, defense, and other critical needs, including Russia and China.
Experts believe that Russia, as a space power, may be hesitant to use such a weapon as it would also disrupt its own space systems, potentially hindering Moscow’s access to space.
Victoria Samson, a space security expert at the Secure World Foundation, stated, “I don’t believe it. Really, I don’t believe it.” She added that if Russia were to take such action, she would be “very surprised.”
Samson also pointed out that if Russia were to deploy this type of weapon, as a space power, it would “effectively block off their path to space.”
However, Major General Christopher Horner, commander of the Canadian military’s space division, noted that given previous reports of Russia developing space-based nuclear weapons for indiscriminate destruction, it cannot be ruled out that Russia is pursuing this type of development.
Horner stated, “I am not saying that I’ve been briefed on those systems, but it is not impossible.”
He added that if reports regarding the nuclear weapons system were true and Russia was willing to pursue such capabilities, then a less extreme but similarly destructive option would not be surprising.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did not respond to the Associated Press’ request for comment. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space.
The related intelligence was provided to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, and the media outlet was unable to independently verify its conclusions.
The U.S. Space Force did not respond to email inquiries.
In a statement to the Associated Press, the French military’s space command said it could not comment on the specifics of the intelligence but noted that “we can say that Russia has persistently engaged in irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space in recent years.”
Western intelligence assessments indicate that Russia views Starlink as a major threat, with these low-orbit satellites becoming a crucial pillar for Ukraine in resisting a full-scale Russian invasion.
Ukrainian forces are using Starlink’s high-speed network for battlefield communications, weapon targeting, etc. In areas where communication capabilities have been disrupted by Russia, civilians and government officials also rely on Starlink.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites providing services to Ukrainian forces could be “legitimate targets.” This month, Russia announced the deployment of a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of targeting low-orbit objects.
The intelligence obtained by the Associated Press did not specify when Russia could deploy this capability or whether it had been tested and the status of development.
An official familiar with the intelligence, who has access to related information that the Associated Press does not, stated that this system is still actively being developed but declined to share when it might be deployed.
The intelligence indicates that this weapon may attempt to “flood” the Starlink orbit with hundreds of thousands of high-density micro particles, creating a destructive cloud of debris to incapacitate multiple satellites at once. These particles could be released by a yet-to-be-launched fleet of small satellites, with sizes as small as millimeters, capable of damaging satellites’ solar panels, rendering them offline or incapacitated. These particles could evade conventional tracking by ground and space surveillance systems, making it difficult for nations to hold Moscow accountable.
Clayton Swope, a space security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that if “the particles cannot be tracked, things would indeed become more complex,” but if satellites begin to fail one after another due to damage, eventually, the connection would be made.
Swope also stated that the potential space turmoil caused by this weapon could serve as a deterrence without Russia needing to actually use it, becoming a “weapon of fear.”
Additionally, due to Starlink operating in low Earth orbit (LEO), any attack would pose a long-term threat to objects in lower orbits, such as China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station (ISS).
Russia has been developing anti-satellite capabilities in recent years. In 2021, it used the A-235 “Nudol” anti-satellite missile to destroy a retired satellite, generating 1,700 fragments and sparking international concern about space safety.
In ongoing military conflicts, Russia currently employs non-destructive anti-satellite capabilities like widespread electronic interference, impacting Ukraine’s satellite communications and navigation. There are reports indicating that Russia is conducting interference against Starlink.