Latest data on housing sales in November shows a decline in the inventory of homes for sale in the United States, leading to an increase in seller withdrawals and driving up prices. Experts predict that after a three-year stagnation in the resale market, sales are expected to grow by around 14% next year, with new home sales increasing by 5%, and home prices also expected to rise by 4%.
According to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Friday, November’s existing home sales increased by only 0.5% compared to October, with an annualized sales rate of 4.13 million units, a 1% decrease from the same period last year. This data reflects contracts likely signed in September and October, when mortgage rates briefly dropped but then remained relatively stable within a narrow range.
In terms of market supply, while inventory of homes for sale had been increasing for most of this year, there was a decline in November. The NAR reported that by the end of November, the number of homes for sale stood at 1.43 million units, a 5.9% decrease from October, but a 7.5% increase from the same period last year. At the current sales pace, this represents a 4.2-month supply, with a six-month supply usually considered a balanced market for buyers and sellers.
NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted in a statement that the growth in housing inventory has started to slow down. “Given the historically low distressed sales and the historically high home values, homeowners are not in a rush to put their properties on the market in the winter.”
Furthermore, there has been a higher-than-usual rate of seller withdrawals in the housing market this year as winter approaches. Homeowners typically pull unsold homes off the market before winter, a trend that has been more noticeable this year.
The tightening supply continues to drive up prices. The median price of homes sold in November was $409,200, a 1.2% increase from the same period last year, setting a new high for November sales prices. NAR points out that the median price is influenced by the structure of sales, with higher-end properties performing much better than lower-end ones. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 decreased by nearly 8% from the same period last year, while sales of homes priced over $1 million increased by 1.4%.
Yun stated, “Wage growth is outpacing the rise in home prices, which is boosting housing affordability. However, if housing supply does not keep up with demand, affordability could be impacted in the future.”
In terms of market liquidity, homes are staying on the market longer, increasing from 32 days in November last year to 36 days this year. First-time buyers accounted for 30% of sales, unchanged from the same period last year but below the historical average of 40%. Investors are returning to the market, representing 18% of transactions, up from 13% in November last year.
NAR’s latest report predicts a bright outlook for the real estate market next year. Yun highlighted that the housing hotspots in 2026 will feature strong demand potential, expected improvement in affordability, and most crucially, housing inventory matching the budgets of returning buyers.
Renowned national speaker and real estate coach, Brian Buffini, agreed with NAR’s 2026 forecast, but added that buyers need to be more practical in terms of mortgage rates.
He noted, “Rates are never going back to the 3% to 4% levels seen during the pandemic; that was an artificial market. If rates stay around 6% or lower, I believe we will see a traditional spring market resurgence next year.”
Buffini estimated that if rates drop below 6%, about 10% of renters nationwide could transition into active homebuyers. He also pointed out other factors that could balance the market, such as revising capital gains tax laws and limiting the number of properties investors can hold.
Current regulations allow single sellers to have a tax-free profit limit of $250,000 and married sellers $500,000. However, Buffini highlighted that with home prices doubling or even tripling in many parts of the country, sellers still face substantial tax obligations upon selling their properties.
Proposed legislation, the Bipartisan Housing Supply Increase Act, suggests raising the tax exemption on sales proceeds to $500,000 for single sellers and $1 million for married sellers. “California homeowners face some of the highest housing costs in the country, and imminent capital gains taxes are discouraging many from listing their properties for sale,” remarked Buffini.
Quoting NAR data, Buffini mentioned that the median age of home sellers in the United States is 64, with many seniors selling their homes to downsize or move closer to family. “Elders often hope to live with their children and grandchildren,” he explained, “and in many cases, they are investing in multi-generational housing, such as duplexes.”
Buffini agreed with NAR’s observation that in many metropolitan areas where home prices have surged in the past, prices are now stabilizing. “People are looking to different cities as they seek affordability,” he added.
(This article references reports from CNBC and English Epoch Times)