According to traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi, there is a growing probability that U.S. President Trump will choose Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, surpassing another popular candidate, Kevin Hassett.
On Monday, traders on the Kalshi platform marked Warsh as the top contender to succeed current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a nomination probability of about 46%, while Hassett’s probability stands at around 39%. Just last week, the platform predicted that Hassett had a high winning probability of 77%, compared to Warsh’s mere 10%.
The trading volume in this market (total amount bet) exceeds $10.2 million.
Kalshi allows users to bet on all kinds of events – from politics and economic policies to sports and pop culture, turning public opinion into tradable market betting odds.
In recent days, the nomination probabilities for Warsh and Hassett on the Kalshi platform have seen sharp fluctuations, attributed to Trump’s recent statements and the latest information revealed by the media.
After previously telling reporters that he already knew who he would choose as the Fed Chair, Trump stated in an interview with The Wall Street Journal last Friday that former Fed official Warsh is the top contender.
“Yes, I think he is,” Trump told the media.
However, Trump did not rule out the possibility of choosing White House National Economic Council Director Hassett to lead the U.S. central bank. He added, “I think it’s a ‘Kevin versus Kevin’ choice. Both of them – I think these two Kevins are great. I think there are also several other great candidates.”
Hassett, Trump’s chief economic advisor, has been a staunch defender of Trump’s economic agenda and provided economic policy advice to Trump during his first term in office, holding two positions. He also offered advice on economic policy during Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
Warsh, Hassett’s competitor, also has a strong background in economic work. He joined the Fed in 2006 at the age of 35, becoming the youngest governor appointed in the Fed’s history and coming from Morgan Stanley.
When considering candidates to replace then Fed Chair Janet Yellen in 2017, Warsh was one of the leading contenders. However, Trump ultimately chose Powell for the position.
Warsh was also considered a candidate for Treasury Secretary in Trump’s administration, but Trump later appointed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department.
According to CNBC, sources revealed that a sharp shift in predictions on Warsh and Hassett on the Kalshi platform was influenced by senior officials with direct access to the president voicing new opposition to Hassett. These advisors are concerned that Hassett’s close relationship with Trump might damage the credibility of the Federal Reserve as an independent federal institution and affect the smooth confirmation of this nomination by the Senate.