On Tuesday, December 2, Americans across the United States are closely watching the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, following the retirement of former Republican Congressman Mark Green, leaving a congressional seat vacant.
The Democrats hope to win this long-held Republican seat and shrink the already narrow majority the GOP holds in the U.S. House of Representatives. This could serve as a litmus test of the political leanings of Southern voters heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is significant due to the delicate balance of power in the 119th Congress, with 219 Republican Representatives, 213 Democratic Representatives, and 3 vacant seats, giving Republicans a slim majority in the House.
The race aims to fill the seat left vacant by former Republican Congressman Mark Green’s resignation in July, representing 14 counties in central Tennessee, including the tourist district of downtown Nashville and the affluent suburbs of Williamson County.
Republican candidate Matt Van Epps, a former Tennessee Public Service Commissioner and Army helicopter pilot, is viewed more favorably than Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn, a state Representative from District 51.
The Republicans have long held control of Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. A loss in this traditionally GOP-favorable district may indicate a shift in Southern politics, potentially further diminishing the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The importance of the Tennessee special election lies in its potential to influence the power balance in the House, with several upcoming elections potentially impacting the Republican majority.
Providing a glimpse into the larger political landscape, recent Democratic victories in special elections in Florida, Virginia, and Arizona have unsettled Republicans, surpassing their party advantage in the 2024 presidential election by an average of 18 percentage points.
The Democrats’ recent successes in reclaiming the governorship of Virginia and approving a ballot initiative in California to redraw congressional districts signal a potential blue wave in the upcoming elections.
A victory for Behn in the competition could extend the momentum of Democratic wins in Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections and forecast a blue wave in the upcoming year, further weakening Republican control.
The ongoing momentum has emboldened Democrats to compete even in deep red regions, viewing any reduction in the gap, as seen in Trump’s 22-point margin victory in the 2024 election in Tennessee’s 7th district, as a significant achievement highlighting their strength heading into the 2025 midterm elections.
The special election in Tennessee is just the first in a series of elections that could alter the balance of power in the House:
– On January 5, 2026, after the departure of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia, the Republican majority will decrease to 218 seats.
– Texas voters will elect a Democrat on January 31 to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner who passed away in March.
– New Jersey voters will choose a successor to recently resigned Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill, who was elected as Governor, on April 16.
These elections will likely bring significant changes to the distribution of House seats in the coming months, affecting the Republicans’ ability to advance their legislative agenda.
Given the significance of the Tennessee special election, both parties have poured resources into the race. According to data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Van Epps raised $992,715 from April 1 to November 12 this year, with campaign expenditures exceeding $757,293. Behn raised $1.2 million from July 1 to November 12.
The Super PAC known for supporting Trump, MAGA Inc., has spent approximately $1 million to support Van Epps’ campaign, marking their first investment in a race since the last presidential election.
Former President Trump addressed a rally in Nashville on December 1 and held a telephone rally for the Republican candidate Van Epps. Van Epps has also garnered support from Tennessee Governor Bill Lee and Ohio Republican Representative Jim Jordan.
House Speaker Johnson, Senator Marsha Blackburn, and Governor Lee planned to speak at the Republican “Get Out the Vote” rally on December 1.
On the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC has invested $1 million in support of Behn. Former Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and Al Gore, DNC Chair Ken Martin, and New York Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have all joined the campaign efforts.
According to a poll conducted by Emerson College Polling/The Hill released on November 26, Van Epps holds a slight lead over Behn. The survey conducted from November 22 to 24 shows 48% of voters in the district support Van Epps, while 46% support Behn. 5% of voters remain undecided, with 2% planning to vote for other candidates, indicating a tightly contested election.
Election day in Tennessee is on December 2, with polling places open from 7 am to 7 pm Central Time. The Tennessee Elections Department reports over 43,000 voters have already submitted ballots during early voting.
Van Epps and Behn will both hold watch parties starting at 7 pm on election night.