In recent years, the “Northeast Phenomenon” has worsened as the economy has collapsed, the population has declined, and pension funds have dried up. Experts believe that this is mainly due to the most thorough implementation of the CCP system in the three northeastern provinces, and the current situation in the Northeast may be a glimpse into China’s future.
The so-called “Northeast Phenomenon” refers to a series of issues that have arisen in the Northeast region in terms of economy, population, and social structure, including the difficulty of transitioning the heavy industrial structure, deteriorating population structure, and economic cliff.
Public data shows that in terms of birth rate, in 2024, Heilongjiang had a birth rate of 3.35‰, with only three newborns per thousand people. Looking at the divorce rate, Heilongjiang province had a divorce rate as high as 81% in 2024, with an average of 81 divorces for every 100 marriages conducted. At the same time, the Northeast has entered a stage of severe aging, with over 9 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 21.9% of the total population.
Author Laofeng from the WeChat public account “Fengyu Finance” wrote that the low birth rate, high divorce rate, and skyrocketing death rate in the Northeast make up the “three killings” (akin to “three evils” in feng shui terminology), forming a silent social experiment. Netizens jokingly remark, “Not giving birth, not getting through, not living,” which seems like a punchline but is actually an early submission of answers in China’s examination.
The author pointed out that the Northeast is the most “institutionalized” region, always being dominated by state-owned enterprises, with all fates bearing shadows from the “red-headed documents.” It is precisely because of this that the Northeast was the earliest to industrialize, urbanize, age, and experience low fertility rates.
He believes that the global “rust belt” follows the same cycle: economic downturn → talent outflow → declining birth rates → exacerbated aging → further economic downturn. Detroit in the U.S., Northeast Japan, and mining regions in Western Europe, all once glorious, have fallen into silence. The Northeast is just a bit faster, completing in 40 years what others took 200 years to do, leading from a distance.
The Liaoning writer Dashing (pseudonym) recently told Da Ji Yuan reporters that the Northeast’s economy is indeed failing. State-owned enterprises have shrunk significantly, there are too few private enterprises, many young people lack formal employment, with wages around three to four thousand, and many young people are dependent on their parents, leading to the populace barely scraping by.
“Young people don’t return after graduating from university. My classmates’ children are mostly in major cities outside the region, while those who didn’t attend university work odd jobs locally. The cost of living is very cheap, as housing prices are low, with new buildings priced at around four to five thousand per square meter and old buildings at around one thousand per square meter. After 40 years of reform and opening up, the ordinary people in the Northeast are still generally not wealthy, barely making ends meet,” he said.
The Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development of Heilongjiang Province in 2024 showed that according to a 5‰ sample survey on population changes in 2024, the total population of permanent residents in Heilongjiang at the end of the year was 30.29 million, a decrease of 330,000 from the previous year.
According to a report by Caixin, among the 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions that have disclosed data on the population, Heilongjiang had the second-highest decrease in permanent residents after Shandong (428,000). Liaoning and Jilin, the other two provinces in the Northeast, saw reductions of 270,000 and 221,000 permanent residents respectively in 2024. Over the year, the permanent population in the three northeastern provinces decreased by 817,000. Looking back over the past decade, the three northeastern provinces have collectively lost over 11 million permanent residents.
The CCP’s official population statistics are believed to be greatly inflated. A netizen named “keb” stated, “Personally, I feel that the population data in the Northeast is not accurate. The reality may be even harsher. Currently, many retired elderly people from the Northeast are flying southward like migratory birds to be with their children in the south. If calculated based on actual residence, the population loss in the Northeast would be even more severe.”
According to the official data on the “Rural Revitalization” initiative, around 3.6 million natural villages existed in China in 2005, but by 2017, this number had dropped to approximately 2.617 million. This implies that nearly 990,000 natural villages vanished over the span of 12 years, an average disappearance of around 224 villages per day, showing an accelerating trend.
The phrase “Ten villages, nine deserted” is used to describe rural areas in the Northeast.
A resident of Harbin shared with Da Ji Yuan reporters, “There are fewer cars and people on the streets now, and only a few residential buildings have lights on at night. It’s really deserted, the feeling is very apparent. It’s been many years since I attended a wedding; I have two female relatives in their thirties without partners, and they seem unhurried to find one, which has become a norm for their parents. I know families in Guangzhou who want three or four children, but it’s rare in the Northeast. The cost of raising children is high, so people are taking it step by step.”
Not long ago, Zeng Jieming, a veteran mainland media personality, wrote that with the massive disappearance, emigration, and extremely low birth rates, Northeast China is currently undergoing a process of civilizational extinction.
He believes that due to the population collapse, the Northeast’s economy is rapidly sliding towards extinction. The crisis of ultra-low fertility rates nationwide is a “case of laughing at 50 steps when passing 100 steps,” and other regions in China have the same societal system as the Northeast – the Northeast simply became the pioneer in collapse due to its high proportion of state-owned enterprises and more thorough implementation of family planning policies. Today’s Northeast is tomorrow’s China.
Zeng Jieming analyzed that the crux of the Northeast issue lies in population collapse. Because the Northeast has the highest proportion of state-owned enterprises in the country, the implementation of the one-child policy has been most thorough, leading to particularly severe issues of declining birth rates and aging population.
Furthermore, the drastic reforms carried out by the CCP in the late 1990s indiscriminately dismantled the Northeast’s state-owned enterprises, leading to economic collapse and immense hardship, causing a significant outflow of people to the more prosperous regions inland. The loss of population and economic decline further exacerbated the declining birth rates, creating a vicious cycle.
A pessimistic Dalian resident named Wei Ping expressed to Da Ji Yuan that populations can naturally disappear without the need for war. “Nowadays, people are afraid to get married, afraid to have children, afraid of getting sick, and afraid of dying… everyone is lethargic. Fewer people are getting married, and even fewer are having children. People’s lifespans are significantly decreasing; the previous generation could handle it, as they consumed green food, but the youth today rely on takeout filled with technology and chemicals, resulting in more cases of terminal illnesses.”
“Young people have no jobs now, leading to a skewed society. Many elementary schools and kindergartens in Dalian have fewer students; many have become partially empty, with no one around. Foreign investments have pulled out entirely, causing a lack of job opportunities. I think in another ten years, there will be even fewer people. Why talk about having a second or third child? People are hesitating even to have one child, let alone get married. Very few have good family conditions, so marriages have decreased. These people struggle to make ends meet; they can’t even support themselves, let alone start families and businesses.”
Dalian, once known as the “Northern Pearl,” has in recent years transformed into the “Northern Dark Pearl.” Wei Ping observed, “Countless businesses have closed down in recent times. After 7 p.m. in Dalian, you hardly see anyone on the streets, and most nightlife spots are closed. Many commercial properties are up for rent, it’s really bleak. Jobs are hard to come by; those who bought houses when prices were high are now under immense mortgage and car loan pressure, leading many to take their own lives.”
Columnist Wang He from Da Ji Yuan believes that the CCP’s system in the Northeast is the most thorough, thereby inflicting the most harm on the entire society. The current calamity is now surfacing, indicating that the policy and system set by the CCP are a complete failure, with the Northeast serving as a live example.
For over two decades, the CCP has initiated multiple rounds of “Northeast Revitalization Strategies,” yet the Northeast’s shortcomings are glaring, with GDP growth rates consistently lower than the national average and instances of negative growth in some areas.
Looking back, after seizing power, the Northeast was the most industrially developed region in China under a strict planned economy. However, following the “reform and opening up,” the entire Northeast fell far behind. This planned economy approach engendered the strictest regulations from systems to policies to individuals’ thought patterns in executing central strategies. For example, the strict enforcement of the family planning policy resulted in the most significant harm.
He stated, “The Northeast’s economy is lagging, corruption is rampant, politics are malicious, and high-ranking CCP officials being brought down first began in the Northeast. For instance, the ‘Mu Ma’ case in 2000 (involving the bribery, embezzlement, and misappropriation of funds by Shenyang Mayor Mu Suixin and Deputy Mayor Ma Xiangdong), implicated over a hundred officials. Due to its status as an old industrial base with many state-owned enterprises, corruption was severe, corrupting people’s values. At the time, there was a saying in the investment community, ‘Investment doesn’t go past three customs.’ The Northeast was a very corrupt market, and the private economy was underdeveloped.”
The Northeast’s pension funds have long been in deficit. According to the “China Social Insurance Development Annual Report 2015” released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in 2015, Heilongjiang’s urban enterprise employee pension fund had an income deficit of 18.3 billion yuan, with Liaoning and Jilin experiencing deficits of 10.5 billion and 4.1 billion yuan respectively.
Wang He explained that this is related to the CCP’s pension system and the population structure of China’s Northeast. With an increasing number of retirees and a decreasing workforce, the deficits have only grown larger, with the Northeast relying on funds centralized by the central government to sustain itself.
“In ’98, the reforms in state-owned enterprises were predatory and forceful, leading to massive layoffs in the Northeast. Following China’s entry into the WTO and the relaxation of social controls, many people from the Northeast went to Hainan and other southern regions to work, alleviating some of the unemployment issues. However, the Northeast’s economic collapse itself could not be solved, exacerbating the employment problem and forcing people to seek opportunities elsewhere,” he said.
The Northeast has become China’s rust belt. Wang He believes, “If the CCP’s politics continue to shift to the left, with regions nationwide closely following suit, then the Northeast will chart the course ahead, with everyone being unable to dodge this fate. The Northeast’s circumstances also serve as a warning to other provinces, advising them to maintain some distance from the central government’s policies. Every province has its unique situation, and the Northeast’s plight acts as a cautionary tale for everyone.”