During his recent visit to Europe, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi disclosed to senior European diplomats that Beijing cannot afford Russia’s failure in the Ukraine conflict and is concerned that the United States will subsequently shift its strategic focus towards China. This rare candid statement has sparked widespread international attention.
Experts believe that Wang Yi’s remarks were not a slip of the tongue but a calculated “authorized disclosure” chosen carefully by the Chinese Communist Party to influence the European Union’s stance and to solidify the unity between China and Russia in counteracting Western pressure. However, the EU’s vigilance towards Chinese support for Russia and its firm stance on trade sanctions make it difficult to ease tensions in the short term between China and Europe.
According to the South China Morning Post, during a four-hour meeting with the EU’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, Wang Yi explicitly expressed Beijing’s concerns that should Russia fail, the U.S. will shift its entire focus towards the East. This declaration sharply contrasts with China’s publicly declared neutral position.
Insiders revealed that Wang Yi attempted to “educate” the newly appointed former Estonian Prime Minister politically, with a focus on Beijing’s assessment that the U.S. will fully pivot towards the East. It is widely believed within the EU that prolonging the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may serve Beijing’s strategic interests by helping to keep the U.S. occupied on the Ukrainian issue.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict for three years has been a major point of friction in current China-EU relations. The EU has long criticized Beijing for providing dual-use goods to Russia, while China has never openly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has maintained close diplomatic and economic ties with Russia.
Currently, the EU is preparing to blacklist two small Chinese banks for allegedly violating sanctions against Russia.
In his analysis on the “Good Morning China” program, media veteran Fang Wei pointed out that Wang Yi’s remarks were not made casually but as an “authorized disclosure,” reflecting deep strategic considerations of the Chinese Communist Party’s top echelons. He believes Wang Yi’s trip aimed to reassure the EU that China’s support for Russia is not directed against the EU but stems from concerns about U.S. strategic containment. At the same time, China emphasizes that China and Europe should jointly pursue “strategic autonomy” to counter the U.S.-dominated unipolar world order.
However, the EU holds solid evidence of China providing dual-use goods to Russia, and remains highly vigilant in its stance. Former President of the United States, Trump, previously mentioned the possibility of reducing military aid to Ukraine, causing concerns in Europe and intensifying dissatisfaction with China’s support for Russia. Fang Wei believes this may be a deliberate move by Trump to force China to reveal its true position, thereby exacerbating contradictions between China and Europe.
Commentator Hong He further analyzed on the “Hong He Commentary” program that Wang Yi’s statements reflect the strategic intentions of the Chinese Communist Party’s top echelons to curb the U.S. by supporting Russia, aiming to seek strategic buffers for China’s actions in the Taiwan Strait or other regions. As a seasoned diplomat, Wang Yi’s candid statements were carefully designed and could be a probe or pressure tactic towards the EU to make it accept China’s stance of not wishing for Russia’s failure.
Hong He pointed out that China has long viewed the U.S. as its primary geopolitical rival. The Russia-Ukraine war has diverted U.S. strategic resources in the Indo-Pacific region, which benefits China. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry maintains a neutral stance outwardly, it has never condemned Russia’s invasion and continues to support Russia through economic and military exchanges.
He also mentioned that after the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine may have been part of a “tacit understanding” or “secret agreement” reached with Xi Jinping to use the Russia-Ukraine conflict to restrain the U.S. and in exchange for Russia supporting China’s potential invasion of Taiwan. However, Xi Jinping discovered significant corruption within the missile force during preparations for the Taiwan invasion, thwarting his ambitions.
Hong He believes that as long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to curb the U.S., it aligns with China’s strategic interests. Wang Yi’s statements serve to test the EU’s limits and warn that excessive pressure from the EU may worsen China-EU relations.
The EU’s vigilance towards China’s support for Russia and its firm stance on trade sanctions raise doubts about the soothing effect of Wang Yi’s statements. EU High Representative Kallas explicitly pointed out that China’s actions in cyber attacks, unfair trade, and support for Russia have damaged Europe’s security and employment, potentially deepening the EU’s wariness towards China.