China is expected to have 12.22 million university graduates this year, an increase of 430,000 from last year’s historical peak. However, nearly half of last year’s graduates were unemployed upon graduation. In order to stabilize employment, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the Chinese Communist Party has put forward policies such as the “Three Supports and One Help.” Yet, analysts believe that the authorities’ policies cannot solve the fundamental issue.
Minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Wang Xiaoping stated on March 9th during the two sessions press conference that the scale of China’s new graduates this year is expected to reach 12.22 million. She mentioned that the overall pressure on employment is not decreasing, structural contradictions are becoming more prominent, and the pressure on the people’s employment and income increase. At the same time, the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, the foundation of the domestic economic recovery is not yet solid, which may have a certain impact on employment.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Education of the Chinese Communist Party, in 2024, the number of graduates from Chinese universities reached 11.79 million, setting a new historical record. A report released by the renowned online recruitment platform in China, Zhaopin, indicated that the employment rate of graduates from Chinese universities in 2024 decreased from 57.6% the previous year to 55.5%, meaning that nearly half of the graduates were unemployed. With the job market last year struggling to fully absorb all university graduates, this year’s increase of 430,000 only adds to the severity of the employment situation for young people in China.
In response to the employment issues of Chinese university graduates, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the Chinese Communist Party claims that new support policies will be implemented, including stabilizing recruitment scale, expanding the number of grassroots project personnel such as the “Three Supports and One Help,” and implementing the “Million Employment” internship program. The so-called “Three Supports and One Help” refer to graduates going to rural areas to engage in educational, agricultural, medical, and poverty alleviation work after graduation.
Commentator Cai Shenkun told Radio Free Asia that the current employment issue in China has become a nationwide difficulty. He believes that the current unemployment rate for young people in China is at least 40%, much higher than the official statistics by tens of percentage points. Even calling on young people to develop in grassroots or rural areas cannot solve the problem. Currently, the branch secretaries in rural areas are appointed by the government, and the continuous expansion at the grassroots level in the past has now become difficult to sustain due to financial constraints.
Official Chinese Communist Party data shows that in December 2024, the urban unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 24 who are not in school was 15.7%. However, research by Beijing University scholar Zhang Dandan suggests that in 2023, the youth unemployment rate in China could be as high as 46.5%.
Cai Shenkun said, “The main problem lies in the severe contraction of the job market in private enterprises. Although Xi Jinping held a symposium for private entrepreneurs before the two sessions, effective new policies have not been introduced so far. Xi is implementing the ‘state advances, private retreats’ policy, which marginalizes private enterprises, lowers investor confidence, and makes it impossible to undertake large-scale investments.”
“In addition, the deteriorating international economic environment, trade wars, and tariff issues exacerbate the uncertainty for enterprises, making them hesitant to expand investments. With China currently facing overcapacity, the latest consumer price index (CPI) in February decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, turning negative again after 13 months, indicating persistent deflation issues. Coupled with the decline in industrial profits, it reflects weak domestic demand,” he said.
Cai Shenkun believes that the serious unemployment of Chinese people leads to a decline in purchasing power, further aggravating a vicious cycle. With millions of university graduates entering the job market this year and the cumulative number of unemployed continuing to rise, the difficulty in job hunting is significant.
According to data released by the Department of Mobility Management of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the Chinese Communist Party in May last year, since the implementation of the fourth round of the “Three Supports and One Help” plan in 2021, authorities have dispatched a total of 121,700 “Three Supports and One Help” personnel to serve at the grassroots level nationwide.
These policies offer limited quotas, which are like a drop in the bucket compared to the vast number of unemployed young people.
Every year, China faces a huge group of university graduates, especially in the current economic downturn and job market pressure, exacerbating the issue of “graduation equals unemployment.”
Assistant researcher Fang Congyan of the Institute of CCP Military and Operational Concepts at the think tank Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies told Radio Free Asia, “If the fundamental issue is not resolved, simply encouraging young people to go to rural areas or work in relatively inland provinces is not feasible.”
She analyzed that the stable youth employment plans currently rolled out by the CCP government are just extensions of past policies, and their effectiveness will not be significant. Even though Xi Jinping convened a symposium for private entrepreneurs before the two sessions, most observers remain skeptical.
In recent years, the sluggish Chinese economy has left university graduates facing difficulties in finding employment. This situation has drawn attention to the group of “unfinished children.” The term refers to young people who, after graduation, cannot find work and have to rely on their parents for support.
“Yuan Yuan,” who works in Shanghai, previously mentioned that her brother graduated from university last year with a major in software development. He sent out many resumes during school but did not receive any responses. Unable to find a job, her brother had no choice but to rely on her. The family of five rented a two-bedroom apartment, where her brother had to sleep in the living room until he found employment. She said her brother’s experience is very representative.
An 80s-born blogger from Anhui called “Nuomi” once posted a video titled “Crying loudly on the street, life is too hard.” She said she has an undergraduate degree, has been unemployed for over a year, and has been unable to find a job. She survives by doing odd jobs on a daily basis. Living like this is truly exhausting. She feels like she can’t go on. “Why is life so tiring now? It’s really difficult to survive in today’s society!”