Several mainland Chinese media outlets reported on Thursday (December 19) that multiple local securities regulatory bureaus have recently required financial institutions to regulate the public statements of their chief economists, securities analysts, and fund managers.
Over the past year, the list of Chinese economists who have been silenced due to expressing independent opinions and discordant views with the official stance has been growing longer.
According to reports from Economic Daily, Securities Times, Securities China, and others, securities research institutes have issued internal notices to strengthen the management of analysts within their institutions, requiring analysts to strictly regulate their own speech and actions.
It has been revealed that some securities firms have demanded rigorous personnel management, especially for key employees such as chief economists, securities analysts, and fund managers, to ensure full coverage and avoid any loopholes. They will strictly supervise behaviors that involve irresponsible statements and trigger negative public sentiment.
Furthermore, internal notices stress that research reports should be based solely on viewpoints and caution research personnel against making “inappropriate remarks” or relaxing standards. They warn against testing the regulatory boundaries with a mentality of taking chances.
An unnamed securities analyst disclosed that their company has reiterated the prohibition of providing research notes on publicly-listed companies to clients in any manner. Such notes are only permitted for internal archival purposes or as material for report writing.
In addition, employees are required to seek pre-approval for the content of their speeches at various social events, meetings, forums, roadshows, and seminars. They are also prohibited from disseminating unverified or illegally sourced data and information. In other words, research personnel are expected to strictly align the data and information they publicize with the official position of the Chinese Communist Party.
It has been reported that in the past two years since 2023, over forty penalty tickets have been issued by Chinese authorities to securities firms for making public statements or privately publishing securities analysis opinions.
In the context of the Chinese Communist Party’s call for fostering a more positive economic narrative, local analysts have refrained from speaking out and are increasingly vocal about positive views. In contrast, individual economists have faced repercussions for presenting objective analysis reports.
Prior to this, Gao Shanwen, the chief economist of State-owned Guotou Securities, and Fu Peng, the chief economist of Northeast Securities, had their WeChat accounts and self-media accounts suspended for offering pessimistic comments on China’s domestic economy.
Fu Peng observed that China’s economy had major issues even before the 2019 pandemic, and in recent years, the extent of economic deterioration has been much more severe than what is superficially visible. Due to insufficient effective consumption, the decline of the middle class, the official stimulus measures no longer yield results similar to those in 2008.
Gao Shanwen’s assessment based on data revealed an overestimation of China’s GDP accumulated by ten percentage points over the past three years. He characterized post-pandemic Chinese society as having “vibrant elderly, lifeless youth, and despairing middle-aged.”
Tao Jingzhou, a classmate of former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at Peking University and an international arbitrator, remarked that the Chinese authorities’ demand for economists to stay silent about GDP data is counterproductive, as “jokes related to GDP data are more prevalent in private conversations than ever before.”
The list of Chinese economists who have been silenced by the Chinese Communist Party over the past year has been steadily growing, including Liu Jipeng, former dean of the School of Business at China University of Political Science and Law, Dan Bin, chairman of Shenzhen Eastern Harbor Investment Management Company, financial blogger Hong Rong, Chen Shouhong, founder of investment research institution Glorious Times, renowned commentator Shui Pi, economist Ma Guangyuan, financial writer Wu Xiaobo, and former Senior Investment Advisor at Zhongjin Fortune Securities, Xu Xiaoyu.