International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded its economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026. The agency now predicts a growth rate of 4.3% for the upcoming year and 4% for 2026.
This adjustment by Fitch Ratings reflects a revision in GDP growth forecasts for China. The agency has lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.3% and its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 4%.
Fitch Ratings noted that while there are initial signs of stabilization in the Chinese real estate sector, the market still faces long-term risks of stagnation.
Geo-political risks are escalating further, with the expected actual tariff rate on goods imported from China by the United States set to increase from about 10% to approximately 35%.
In September, Fitch Ratings had previously predicted that China’s economic growth would continue to slow down in 2024 and 2025. The GDP growth forecast for this year is 4.8%, followed by an anticipated slowdown to 4.5% in 2025.