Canada is planning to establish two new consulates in Alaska and Greenland and appoint a dedicated ambassador for Arctic affairs. This move is seen as part of Canada’s new long-term strategy aimed at uniting with the United States to counter Russia and China’s continuous efforts to expand their influence in the region.
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly announced the strategy on Friday, stating, “The Arctic region will become a key point of our interaction with the United States, our closest partner, and will continue to be so. We will base our Arctic foreign policy on investing in Arctic security.”
The establishment of diplomatic offices in Anchorage, Alaska, is particularly seen as beneficial for strengthening Canada’s relationship with the United States, given recent tensions fueled by President Donald Trump’s comments about imposing high tariffs on Canada and pressuring for increased border security.
Joly emphasized the need for Canada to maintain close ties with its five Nordic allies, all of whom are NATO members. Canada will engage in dialogues with foreign ministers of like-minded countries in the region on Arctic security issues.
Canada and the United States have historically integrated their security through the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), a military organization jointly formed by the two countries that provides air protection and early warning. Canada has committed 38.6 billion Canadian dollars ($27.4 billion) for NORAD’s modernization and aims to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending target by 2032. Trump has urged all NATO member countries to quickly reach this threshold, with some Republican critics viewing Canada’s timeline as too slow.
In July, the Pentagon released the U.S. Arctic strategy focusing on China’s ambitions in the Arctic and its increasing connections with Russia in the region. Shortly after the strategy’s release, the U.S. tracked Russian and Chinese bombers flying together near the Alaskan coast.
Canada updated its defense policy earlier this year, promising to increase its military presence in the Arctic, and has now revealed new strategies, including an additional 34.7 million Canadian dollars in spending over the next five years. This updated defense policy includes committing 8.1 billion Canadian dollars over five years and allocating billions to construct submarines capable of operating under ice.
It remains unclear how President Trump’s administration will advance the U.S. Arctic strategy, but insights from his past statements may provide indications. Nonetheless, Trump’s strategy is expected to impact Canada’s planning.
Rebecca Pincus, director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, noted Trump’s interest in establishing closer ties with Greenland, exploring Arctic oil and gas, economic development, and enhancing the U.S. icebreaker fleet. She also highlighted his emphasis on burden-sharing, diligently pushing allies to reach the 2% spending threshold.
Moreover, Trump’s Arctic strategy will largely depend on key cabinet positions, especially concerning future U.S. policy towards Russia.
Regarding China’s threat in the Arctic region, Pincus believes the U.S.’ messaging has become clearer and enjoys broad bipartisan support.
Pincus anticipates that Trump’s priority will be the defense of the entire North American continent, encompassing border security, the northern border of the U.S., and the modernization needs of NORAD.
However, some remain skeptical about Trump’s investment in North American defense, suggesting Canada may face difficulties if the situation remains ambiguous.
Retired Canadian General Scott Clancy, former director of operations at NORAD, voiced concerns in an interview earlier this week, stating, “I think this will put Canada in a position of choosing between emphasizing Arctic security or the security of the North American Aerospace Defense Command.”
Andreas Østhagen, a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Norway, expressed before Canada’s strategy release that amid increasing worries about China, Canada’s role in Arctic security is likely to have the most significant impact in the Pacific region.
This could lead to increased pressure from Trump on Canada to further increase defense spending as a percentage of GDP, while Canada’s NATO allies may prefer Canada to shift focus to security threats in the Arctic region of Europe.
He stated, “Currently in Oslo, Helsinki, and Stockholm, people are concerned about how the Trump administration can truly understand the complexity of our (Nordic) security situation after taking office, rather than focusing excessively on security issues in China and the Pacific region.”
In 2015, China explicitly emphasized the importance of the Arctic in its “National Security Law.” In January 2018, the CCP formally released its first “Arctic Policy White Paper,” asserting China’s geo-strategic status as a “near-Arctic state.” Even though the northernmost point of mainland China, Mohe County in Heilongjiang Province, is over 1,400 kilometers away from the Arctic Circle.
In October of this year, the U.S. House Select Committee on the CCP’s chairman, Representative John Moolenaar, and the committee’s Democratic chief, Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, wrote to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, highlighting China’s military-civilian research activities in Iceland and Norway and underscoring the potential threats posed to the U.S. and its NATO allies.
According to reports, the China Radio and Radar Propagation Research Institute (CRIRP) operates a research station named “Yellow River” in Svalbard, Norway. This institute is part of the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, which is one of China’s most critical defense groups and is categorized by the U.S. Department of Defense as a “Communist Chinese Military Company” listed under the 1260H list (related to Chinese military-backed entities).
CRIRP aims to apply civilian technology to the Chinese military and operates the Electromagnetic Environmental Research Laboratory for Defense, a state-level military laboratory dedicated to classified military research.
On October 1st, four ships from the Chinese Coast Guard sailed from the North Pacific to the Arctic, conducting the first ever joint patrol of coast guard vessels in the Arctic. This marks the farthest north Chinese Coast Guard ships have operated, according to their statements.
China stated that the operation “significantly expands the scope of near-sea operations, thoroughly tests the ships’ abilities to carry out tasks in unfamiliar waters, and provides strong support for active participation in international and regional maritime governance.”
In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced their partnership to create the “Ice Silk Road,” a connecting alternative route through the Arctic Circle linking North America, East Asia, and Western Europe to reduce reliance on chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal.
China’s ambitions in the Arctic have spurred increased Russian activity in the region, utilizing its extensive icebreaker fleet to establish facilities along its northern border. Russia continues to expand its nuclear submarine fleet based in the Arctic, undertaking missions in the Atlantic.
(Reference from Bloomberg reports)