Welcome to the December 6th edition of “News Insight,” with distinguished guests Professor Ming Juzheng, Honorary Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, and Assistant Researcher Wang Guochen from the Chinese Economic Research Institute, hosted by Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: Is South Korea on the verge of leaning left and pro-Communist amid turmoil? Does Yoon Suk-yeol have a fallback plan after declaring martial law? Is the Chinese Communist Party plotting to destabilize the First Island Chain and pressure Trump? Will South Korea backtrack on the “peaceful American economy” route? With Trump’s aggressive trade war, will the Chinese economy inevitably collapse?
As South Korea swiftly declared martial law, reports emerged of prior secret collaboration among the four power centers of the CCP to disrupt the First Island Chain. How will the situation unfold? Will there be a breach in the Indo-Pacific economic and technological security network aimed at countering the CCP?
Chinese unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, low-cost competition, and dumping have targeted South Korea’s eight major industries. Some countries have long embraced the “peaceful American economy” route amidst geopolitical tensions. How long can this strategy last in the new Cold War scenario?
Before the escalation of the US-China trade war, Trump appointed trade hawk Navarro to combat China’s international trade crimes. The House passed a bill targeting China’s trade transgressions. What retaliatory measures does the CCP have in store?
According to reports citing Beijing sources, the CCP allegedly instructed Pyongyang to launch small-scale attacks on Seoul to pressure Trump during a US power transition, creating an anti-Western front with Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The veracity of this report remains unconfirmed.
Professor Ming Juzheng questions whether this aligns with the CCP’s calculations.
Trump’s reappointment of Navarro as a senior trade adviser signals a commitment to his “comprehensive tariff plan” from the campaign. This move may reshape the international order.
The trade war under Trump 1.0 drew inspiration from Navarro’s book “Death by China.” Recently, Professor Wang Guochen analyzed potential tariff rates on Chinese goods under Trump 2.0 reaching 229%. Several nations, including Canada and Mexico, are engaging with Trump.
Professor Wang Guochen interprets the delay in top CCP officials reaching out to Trump and the implications of the House passing the “Protecting American Industry and Labor from International Trade Crime Act” in combating Chinese trade crimes. If this bill becomes law, what impact can be expected?
Following Yoon Suk-yeol’s swift declaration of martial law, the South Korean parliament is set to vote on his impeachment on Saturday. Yoon is seen as a proactive president in balancing pro-US and Japan cooperation against Communist threats. The main opposition party continues a path akin to President Moon Jae-in, with a perceived socialist leaning.
Professor Ming Juzheng observes whether this confrontation signifies Korea’s requisite structural adjustment after years of following the “peaceful American economy, Chinese industry” route amid US-China tensions. Regardless of future leadership, the choice between pro-US or pro-China stances will affect global security.
South Korea’s economic and technological sectors face challenges. The China-South Korea FTA was signed in June 2015. Over the past decade, China has surpassed South Korea in seven out of eight key industries, leading to a GDP growth rate drop to around 1%. The upcoming second term of Trump may serve as the last chance for South Korea to distance itself from China.
Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith notes that global manufacturing is currently in conflict as China drives geopolitical rivals to deindustrialize through overcapacity, affecting countries like Germany and Japan.
The Wall Street Journal reported that China’s flood of cheap exports has angered its southern allies. South Korea is reportedly introducing approximately $10 billion in financial support to bolster its semiconductor sector against Chinese dumping practices.
Professor Wang Guochen observes the significant changes in South Korea’s economy and industry over the past decade. Can the “peaceful American economy, Chinese industry” route be sustained? What decisions must countries make in the future?
The recent series of scandals within the PLA involves corruption from former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, culminating in the investigation of his successor Dong Jun. Political Work Department Director Miao Hua has been suspended due to corruption charges, while Dong Jun resurfaced suddenly on the 5th. The situation is complex.
Professor Ming Juzheng considers if these events will spark larger problems.
The Chinese Premier’s earlier claim of a 5% GDP growth was followed by a statement from Xinhua News Agency shifting focus from GDP measurement as the sole indicator of success. Is this a sign of economic troubles within China?
Professor Wang Guochen previously warned of uncertainties within China’s financial system towards the end of the year. Recent leaked speeches by two Chinese economists highlighted the harsh reality, with market rescue efforts proving ineffective. Guo Shengwen, the chief economist at Country Garden Securities, exposed severe data falsification by Chinese authorities, suggesting a potential turning point in 2025. Reports suggest China is censoring online content.
Professor Wang Guochen observes the shift in official Chinese media rhetoric and the content of the economists’ speeches. What does this indicate about China’s economic and financial situation?
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