France’s National Assembly is set to vote on a motion of no confidence against the government on Wednesday evening, a move that is likely to lead to the downfall of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s fragile coalition government and deepen the political crisis in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy.
This would mark the first time in over 60 years that a French government is forced out of office through a vote of no confidence, as the country grapples with massive budget deficits.
The debate is scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, with the vote expected to take place approximately three hours later. French President Macron, who is currently on a state visit to Saudi Arabia, is anticipated to return home on the same day.
The collapse of the French government will leave a void at the core of Europe, at a time when Germany is also in election mode and just weeks away from the return of U.S. President Trump to the White House.
Barnier took office as France’s Prime Minister just three months ago. The current tension stems from his use of a rarely utilized constitutional mechanism on Monday to push through the controversial 2025 budget without parliamentary approval, citing the need to maintain “stability.”
Leading a minority government, Barnier relies on the support of the right-wing “National Front” on many issues to secure parliamentary approval. However, his plan this time did not receive the backing of the “National Front.”
Accusations have been exchanged between Barnier’s allies and the Le Pen camp, with both claiming to have made efforts to reach an agreement on reducing welfare spending and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue.
Le Pen, the leader of the “National Front,” stated on Tuesday, “Condemning the budget is our only way to protect France.”
With left and right factions uniting, there are enough votes to oust Barnier. Le Pen has confirmed that her party will support the motion of no confidence put forward by the left-wing alliance.
Barnier’s budget proposal aims to reduce the fiscal deficit through tax increases totaling €600 billion (approximately $630 billion) and spending cuts. Credit rating agencies are closely monitoring the developments.
If the no-confidence vote passes, Barnier will have to resign, but Macron may ask him to remain in a caretaker role as Prime Minister until a new candidate is found, a process that may not be realized until next year.
Regarding the budget, if it is not approved by Parliament before December 20, the caretaker government can propose special emergency legislation to extend this year’s expenditure limits and tax provisions. However, this would mean that Barnier’s planned austerity measures would be put on hold.
The current political crisis in France originated from President Macron’s announcement in June to hold early elections, resulting in a chaotic situation within the three-way split in parliament between the left, center, and right. Macron’s presidential term will continue until the mid-term of 2027.
According to French law, new early parliamentary elections cannot be held until July of next year.
(This article draws on reports from Reuters and AP)