Analysis experts indicate that the Russian military is rapidly advancing in Ukraine, making it the fastest progress since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, with the area occupied in the past month equivalent to three-quarters of the size of New York City.
Some Russian and Western officials have stated that as the Russian military gains important territorial achievements, the war is entering its most dangerous phase.
The Russian independent news group Agentstvo reported that Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory has set new weekly and monthly records.
In the past week alone, the Russian military has occupied nearly 235 square kilometers (about 91 square miles) of territory in Ukraine, setting a weekly record for 2024.
The report also cited data from DeepState, stating that the Russian military has already occupied 600 square kilometers (about 232 square miles) of land in November. DeepState is an organization closely related to the Ukrainian military, specializing in studying combat scenes and providing frontline maps.
Starting in July of this year, Russia began to accelerate its advance in eastern Ukraine, while the Ukrainian military took control of a small part of the Kursk region in western Russia.
However, according to open-source maps, the Russian military has since further accelerated its advance.
Analysis experts suggest that the Russian military is advancing towards the town of Kurakhove, a stepping stone to the logistics hub of Pokrovsk.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War in Washington DC stated in a report that the recent pace of Russian advance is significantly faster than that of the whole of 2023.
“The progress of the Russian military in southeastern Ukraine is largely due to identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defense lines,” analysts stated.
On Monday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff reported that on Monday night, Kurakhove witnessed 45 different intensity battles.
Reports from the Institute for the Study of War and pro-Russian military bloggers indicate that the Russian military has entered Kurakhove. DeepState also mentioned on Telegram that the Russian military is near Kurakhove.
Russian authorities have stated that regardless of what Western countries say or do, they will achieve all their objectives in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has repeatedly stated that peace is not possible until all Russian troops are expelled and the occupied territories, including Crimea, are returned.
However, despite the large number of Russian troops, the Ukrainian military has faced numerous obstacles in recruiting soldiers and providing equipment to new units.
Zelenskiy believes that Russian President Putin’s main objective is to occupy the entire Donbas region spanning Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kurk region.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War pointed out in another report that “Russia’s progress in the western parts of Donetsk oblast does not imply a collapse of the Ukrainian frontlines.” Even if the Russian military can leverage recent gains to gain further advantage, they would still need to capture over 8,000 square kilometers more to achieve their goal of taking over the entire Donetsk oblast.
Furthermore, analysts stated that the Russian military is “unlikely to rapidly advance or threaten major Ukrainian military targets or big cities in the 2024-2025 winter war season.” The Ukrainian war zone is vast, and the strategic gains made by Russia in the western parts of Donetsk oblast should not cause unnecessary panic in the short term.
(Reuters contributed to some information in this article)