American scholar Yu Maochun expects that President-elect Trump will maintain a good surface relationship with the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, but will never consider them as true friends, because they have always been untrustworthy.
According to him, in the past, whether in dealing with the COVID pandemic or the US-China trade agreement, the Chinese Communist Party has always said one thing and done another. He estimates that the relationship between China and the US will not deteriorate, but the US will not back down either.
After Trump’s victory, there is a focus on whether his “America First” policy will escalate geopolitical conflicts with China, leading to a second round of trade wars between the two countries, and how Trump views Xi Jinping.
Trump is set to be inaugurated as the President of the United States again in January next year. During his campaign, he threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. After his victory, foreign investors quickly withdrew funds from Chinese index stocks (ETFs).
The Wall Street Journal quoted a former US trade official as saying that after Trump’s victory, Beijing has been carefully strategizing to avoid further weakening of fragile international investment sentiment.
At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Peru on Friday (November 15th), the leader of the Chinese Communist Party sent Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen to speak.
“Splitting an interdependent world is a step backward in history,” Wang Shouwen read Xi’s speech.
Xi Jinping’s remarks are reminiscent of 2017 when he made similar statements at the World Economic Forum in Davos, coinciding with the beginning of Trump’s first term.
Over the following eight years, Trump first imposed punitive tariffs on some Chinese exports, followed by the Biden administration continuing and maintaining these tariffs.
Yu Maochun, Director of the Hudson Institute China Center, in an interview with the self-media “Not Understanding Blog,” said that many people talk about whether US-China relations will change based on who comes in or out of power in the US, or based on the actions of the US government, but this is not correct.
“The improvement of US-China relations depends entirely on what the Chinese Communist Party does,” he said. “The most critical factor causing tension in US-China relations is not the US, but the Chinese Communist Party.”
Yu Maochun, who served as the chief advisor on China policy planning during the Trump era, said that the trade war was not initiated by President Trump, but rather the US responded to the long-term trade war launched by the Chinese Communist Party against the world.
“The Chinese Communist Party has imposed high tariffs on American goods entering China for a long time, and Trump simply recognized reality and responded in kind,” he said.
“Beijing’s most important task in building relationships with the world is to change its own policies, rather than constantly feeling that others are targeting them and staying unchanged in response to change,” Yu Maochun said.
Yu Maochun mentioned that Xi’s biggest characteristic is his strong vanity – he likes to present himself as a world leader and guide the world. Trump is aware of this and thus plays along, claiming they have a good relationship.
He also noted that in reality, Trump understands that Xi Jinping is a dictator and does not have goodwill towards the US.
“On the surface, Trump will handle relations with Xi Jinping well in terms of major policies, but he will never truly consider Xi Jinping as a friend of the US because Xi is untrustworthy,” Yu Maochun said.
When discussing China’s contradictory expressions, Yu Maochun summarized it simply: “When you are on good terms with them, they say you are hiding a dagger behind your smile, plotting against them; when you are not on good terms with them, they say you are trying to contain China.”