After winning the election, the reactions in Japan to Trump’s victory were enthusiastic, with a focus on strengthening the Japan-US alliance and preventing potential trade frictions arising from Trump’s America First policy.
Following his victory in the US election, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had a congratulatory conversation with Trump on the morning of November 7th, confirming they would meet as soon as possible. Both agreed to elevate the Japan-US alliance to a higher level under the Trump administration.
Ishiba later remarked that Trump left a very friendly impression on him, describing him as straightforward and willing to engage in open conversation without flowery language or embellishments. However, the brief 5-minute call sparked public speculation and attention.
On November 10th, Itsunori Onodera, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council, revealed on Fuji TV the reason behind the short call – Trump wanted to talk more with Ishiba, but considering Trump had taken the call abruptly while leaving a meeting, Ishiba decided to end the call early to allow Trump to return to the meeting promptly.
As Trump returns to the White House, it will have a significant impact on the global landscape, with world leaders expressing a mix of joy and concern. Bloomberg categorized Ishiba as a “loser,” along with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Iranian President Raisi, German Chancellor Scholz, and UK Prime Minister Starmen. This is due to Trump repeatedly highlighting Japan’s trade surplus with the US and demanding Japan pay more for the approximately 55,000 US troops stationed in Japan.
In the House of Representatives Prime Minister Nomination Election on November 11th, Ishiba was nominated as the 103rd Prime Minister of Japan after a decisive vote, following the loss of the majority in the House of Representatives in the previous election, making him a vulnerable Prime Minister facing various governance challenges. Trump’s election undoubtedly adds new pressure on him.
After Trump’s first election in 2016, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe immediately flew to Trump Tower in New York for talks with Trump, becoming the first foreign leader to meet with Trump after his election. They established a good personal relationship and mutual trust, successfully resolving contentious issues such as defense costs and bilateral trade.
Ishiba also aims to follow the Abe model, hoping to be the first foreign leader to meet Trump before his inauguration in January next year, to highlight the importance of the Japan-US alliance, build mutual trust, and facilitate discussions on bilateral and international cooperation. He is set to attend the G20 Summit in Brazil from November 18 to 19, planning to stop briefly in the US before and after the meeting to hold talks with Trump.
The US-Japan relationship is crucial. The US is not only Japan’s security ally but also its most important economic partner. For the US, Japan is a vital economic partner and its most important ally in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan provides bases and facilities for US troops and together they guard the first island chain, effectively countering China’s hegemonic expansion in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and globally.
Given Trump’s “America First” policy, the Japanese public and political circles are concerned about the future of US-Japan trade relations.
The Nikkei published an editorial on the 8th, urging Japan to “prepare for America’s priorities.” The editorial noted that for Trump to make America “great again,” he must strengthen the economy, revitalize domestic industries, and protect employment. Trump is also expected to pressure Western countries through tariffs, and Japan and others must prepare for the potential chaos and division that Trump’s new government might bring to the global economy.
The editorial also suggested that Japan and the US should enhance cooperation in economic security and jointly address authoritarian countries such as China. However, Trump seems to prioritize economic interests over alliance significance, so the Japanese government and private sector should deal with this premise in mind.
The editorial urged Trump to withdraw support for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). It stated that Trump had withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), diminishing US credibility in the region, and called on Trump to consider which countries would benefit from these decisions.
The Asahi Shimbun published an editorial on the 10th, focusing on the “autonomy of Japan” following Trump’s election. The editorial pointed out that Trump’s “America First” policy, which exerts pressure on allies, poses a challenge to Japan, whose foreign and security policies rely on the Japan-US alliance. Japan’s ability to break free from dependency on the US, lead international cooperation, and demonstrate diplomatic autonomy will be tested.
The editorial hoped Japan would not only focus on relations with the US but also play a role in preventing international social divisions and establishing a stable global order.
Another editorial in the Mainichi Shimbun on the 10th cautioned against Trump’s protectionism potentially triggering a global trade war, expressing concerns that increased tariffs by the US could plunge the world economy into chaos. It suggested that Trump’s administration may adopt a more aggressive stance, leading to potential global trade conflicts.
However, a Yomiuri Shimbun editorial on the 7th discussed the reasons for Trump’s election and its impact on the Japan-US alliance. The editorial attributed Trump’s return to the White House to the high inflation, increased illegal immigration, and growing social unrest in the US over the past four years, prompting voters to seek change.
It also noted that the Democratic Party’s failures included the US’s inability to contain Russian aggression in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and China’s provocations against the US-led liberal democratic international order.
The editorial also highlighted Japan’s diplomatic challenges. As China and Russia continue their provocations, with North Korea sending troops to Russia, and the geopolitical situation deteriorating in Japan, the importance of the Japan-US alliance becomes more evident. The Japanese government must speak up and strengthen the Japan-US alliance to maintain stability and peace.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that the prosperity and stability of the international community are in the interests of both Japan and the US. It is crucial for Japan to convince the US, and Trump, that efforts will bring benefits to America.
Itsunori Onodera, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council, mentioned that Trump may increase tariffs on Japanese cars, hoping Trump recognizes that Japan, as an ally, is different from competitors like China.
Masakazu Tokura, chairman of the Japan Business Federation, mentioned that the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Trump had built a solid and intimate relationship, and he hopes a similar relationship can be established between Ishiba and Trump. He looks forward to further development in the relationship between the two countries and strengthening US leadership in the international community.
Ken Kobayashi, chairman of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives, expressed hope that Trump’s second term would uphold and strengthen world peace and security without falling into excessive protectionism. He expects Trump, as a leader of a superpower supporting the free trade system, to adopt harmonious policies.
Takeshi Niinami, representative of the Economic Federation, stated that Trump’s administration could have an impact on multilateral frameworks, trade, and other countries, emphasizing the need for business managers to stay vigilant and prepare for various situations.
Tetsuo Kotani, professor at Meio University, argued that Japan should not keep its distance from the US but should proactively strengthen the Japan-US alliance.
Satoru Mori, professor at Keio University, also stressed the importance of enhancing relations with the US without diminishing the alliance’s deterrent power.