The latest data released by the Chinese authorities show that in 2023, both the birth rate and natural population growth rate in Heilongjiang Province ranked lowest among the 31 provinces in China, while the mortality rate was the highest among the 31 provinces.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China as published on its official website, the “China Statistical Yearbook 2024” revealed that in 2023, among the population data of various provinces in China, the birth rate in Heilongjiang Province was 2.92‰, the mortality rate was 9.84‰, and the natural growth rate was -6.92‰.
In 2022, the birth rate in Heilongjiang was 3.34‰, with a natural growth rate of -5.11‰. The data for 2022 had already hit a historical low, and in 2023, these figures further decreased.
According to the “2023 Heilongjiang Provincial National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin,” as of the end of 2023, the total population in Heilongjiang Province was 30.62 million, with 20.549 million in urban areas and 10.071 million in rural areas. The total population in 2023 decreased by 370,000 compared to 2022, indicating a continuous decline in the population of Heilongjiang.
On November 8, “Jiemian News” speculated that the continuous population decline in Heilongjiang could be attributed to factors such as low birth rates, aging population, and population outflow.
Demographic expert He Yafu pointed out that a decrease in the permanent population of a region is due to two main reasons: natural decrease (where deaths exceed births, resulting in a negative natural growth rate) and population outflow.
Regarding the main reason for the decrease in the permanent population of Heilongjiang in 2023 being natural decline or population outflow, He Yafu analyzed that based on the 2023 natural growth rate of -6.92‰, the natural decrease in the population of Heilongjiang in 2023 was 213,000. However, since the permanent population in Heilongjiang decreased by 370,000 compared to the previous year, this suggests a net outflow of 157,000 people.
Data released by the Communist Party of Heilongjiang Province Statistics Bureau shows that since 2011, the permanent population of Heilongjiang Province has been on a downward trend. In 2010, the permanent population in Heilongjiang province was 38.33 million, which decreased to 30.62 million in 2023. From 2010 to 2023, the permanent population of Heilongjiang decreased by a cumulative total of 7.71 million.
In previous years, the “2023 Heilongjiang Provincial National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin” was usually released in March or April each year. However, in 2024, it was delayed until June 11, making it the province that released the bulletin latest in China. Additionally, the bulletin was not prominently displayed on the main page of the Heilongjiang Province Statistics Bureau website as in previous years, but rather on a subpage accessible through multiple navigations, making it less accessible. Moreover, the bulletin did not disclose the three important population indicators of birth rate, mortality rate, and natural growth rate.
In response, the staff of the Heilongjiang Statistics Bureau explained to Jiemian News that the delayed release of the bulletin was mainly due to layers of approval required for its release. They also mentioned that the change in the bulletin’s location was a result of website redesign. As for the non-disclosure of birth rate, mortality rate, and natural growth rate, the staff stated that structural adjustments were made to the bulletin this year, but the information can be obtained through submitting a request for information disclosure.
In China, data such as birth rate and mortality rate are usually announced in the National Economic and Social Development Bulletins of each province in the first half of the year. However, as the population enters negative growth, some provinces have ceased publishing this data.
After the news was released, it sparked attention and discussions among netizens, with over 1,700 participants engaging in discussions on Tencent News.
A Tencent user commented, “The high or low birth rate is closely related to the local economic income. If people have no pressure in life, stable employment, and decent income, they will naturally have more children. Conversely, who would dare to have children in such circumstances? If the government wants to address the issue of low birth rates, it should first solve the employment issue and ensure stable income. Offering a small bonus for having more children simply cannot solve the problem.”
Many netizens believe that the main reason is the poor economy in Heilongjiang Province, with people unable to find jobs, forcing the young to seek opportunities elsewhere.
A Tencent user, iiyd4t1, stated, “Many young people return to their hometown in Heilongjiang, but cannot find jobs in Harbin for several months. How can they afford to buy a house, get married, and have children? I’ve encountered real cases where after searching for work for half a year, they eventually returned to Beijing.”
A netizen named “Jin Tian” expressed, “As a pure Heilongjiang native, what can I say? Everyone comes here to retire! But it’s too cold in winter! The cost of living is also not low. If life in their hometown is comfortable, who would be willing to leave and seek opportunities elsewhere? Who wouldn’t want to stay with their wife and children by the warm hearth, beside their parents?”
Another netizen, “Kylin,” believes that the outflow of the population from Heilongjiang is a long-term trend: “Heilongjiang lacks places where people can earn money through work. Aside from the vegetable market, there are only agricultural trade markets and small commerce hubs. There are hardly any companies that can employ a large workforce. Some farmers stay in Heilongjiang by farming, while others work as civil servants. Still, there are those who do small business. If there are no jobs available, they have no choice but to leave. Moreover, the business environment in Heilongjiang is very poor. Large companies are unlikely to develop in Heilongjiang, and small businesses also find it challenging to grow due to various factors. Therefore, after young people go to work in big cities, they are unlikely to want to return. The outflow of the population is inevitable. Unlike Liaoning, which has heavy industries, and Jilin with the automobile and emerging industries, Heilongjiang, apart from traditional energy sources, is mainly focused on agriculture. Therefore, Heilongjiang struggles to sustain a large workforce, coupled with low wages. Without substantial changes, the outflow of the population cannot be stopped for a decade or more.”