In the tense atmosphere of the 2024 US presidential election, similar to the previous two elections in 2016 and 2020, the final outcome is likely to depend on a few swing states. Currently, both Trump and Harris are neck and neck in the polls in the 7 key swing states, with margins not exceeding 2 percentage points.
The US presidential election is not determined by the popular vote, but rather by the accumulation of electoral votes from all 50 states. There are a total of 538 electoral votes in the US, with California leading with 54 votes, while even states with smaller populations have at least 3 votes.
The candidate needs to secure more than 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Except for Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are awarded proportionally, in the remaining 48 states, it’s a winner-takes-all system. Major US media outlets and election analysis websites have identified Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia as the 7 key swing states in the 2024 election.
According to a report from The Washington Post on October 21, analyzing the battlegrounds in these swing states, they highlighted the crucial factors for victory for both Trump and Harris in the respective states.
Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral votes among all swing states, has been a turning point in the past two elections. In 2016, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Pennsylvania since 1988. In 2020, Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, leading to the Democratic Party regaining Pennsylvania.
The report mentions that Pennsylvania is pivotal in this election, as the winner in Pennsylvania may only need to win two more swing states to reach the threshold of 270 electoral votes for victory.
In Georgia, despite being won by the Republican Party in 2012 and 2016, it became the final straw for Biden to defeat Trump in 2020 with a margin of less than 12,000 popular votes.
The rapid development in the suburbs of Atlanta has reshaped the voter demographics, making the Democratic Party no longer consider Georgia as a difficult battleground. The focus in Georgia is still on the suburban areas of Atlanta, while the analysis also points out that some rural counties will be crucial for Trump to offset the Democratic advantage in suburban areas.
Atlanta, Clayton County, and Muscogee County are key areas for Georgia’s election, with the latter two having a significant African-American population. Additionally, Bartow County and Carroll County are major agricultural counties.
Harris must maintain the Democratic Party’s advantage in Atlanta and widen the gap beyond Trump’s potential support in rural areas. Despite overall leaning towards the Democratic Party, national polls show Trump’s increasing support among African-American voters, which could have a significant impact on Georgia.
Although the Democratic Party has not won North Carolina since 2008, the narrow margin of less than 4 percentage points between the red and blue camps in the past three presidential elections, with Trump winning by just 1 percentage point in 2020, makes North Carolina a highly contested state this year. The Democratic Party’s challenge lies in whether they can win more votes in urban areas, especially in Charlotte and Raleigh.
Charlotte, Raleigh, Buncombe County, Swain County, Robeson, Davidson, and Randolph counties are crucial areas for North Carolina’s election.
Despite Democrats winning in Buncombe and Swain counties in the past three elections, the recent impact of Hurricane Helene could be a variable in the outcome.
Harris needs to expand the Democratic Party’s base in urban centers in North Carolina to secure victory, as urban areas with growing populations and higher education levels may no longer provide automatic support to Trump.
Michigan, a solid ‘blue wall’ for the Democratic Party for 30 years until Trump’s narrow victory in 2016, is in a period of shifting political landscape. The distinction between Trump-friendly rural areas and Democratic-friendly urban areas is diminishing in Michigan.
Detroit, Oakland County, Macomb County, Kent County, and the Upper Peninsula, including three counties, are focal points for Michigan’s election.
Harris can secure a stronghold in Michigan if she continues to consolidate her support in suburban areas and prevent the rural areas from swinging back to the Republican Party. Trump, on the other hand, needs to regain the slight decline in votes in Detroit and Macomb County in 2020 and win back the lost rural votes.
In Arizona, which has only 10 electoral votes but has become a crucial battleground, the dynamics have been unpredictable. Despite being won by a Democratic presidential candidate by about 200,000 votes in 2012, Biden’s victory with a margin of just 10,000 votes in 2020 marked the second time since the 1940s that the Democratic Party reclaimed Arizona. Given the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong performance in the state in the 2022 midterm elections, Arizona remains a key battleground. Currently, Trump’s poll numbers in Arizona are higher than in other swing states.
Maricopa County, Pima County, Yuma County, and Mohave County are critical regions for Arizona’s election.
Harris must ensure Biden’s base in Maricopa County remains intact before seeking to expand the party’s gains further; conversely, Trump may have a good chance in Arizona if he regains urban votes in Maricopa County and recovers rural votes lost in 2020.
Wisconsin, which has been won by Democrats in the past four presidential elections, experienced a reversal in favor of Trump in 2016 by a margin of 0.8 percentage points, equivalent to about 23,000 votes, only for Biden to reclaim it by about 0.6 percentage points, approximately 21,000 votes in 2020. Despite having only 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin has become a key battleground.
The situation in Wisconsin is unique, with a predominantly white population residing in rural areas. The Democratic Party has shown relatively good performance among white and rural voters here compared to elsewhere, but suburban voters in Wisconsin tend to vote Republican, which favors Trump.
Dane County, Brown County, Winnebago County, Dodge County, and the greater Milwaukee area are focal points for Wisconsin’s election.
Harris needs to win more votes in Milwaukee to stand a chance in Wisconsin, while Trump must ensure minimal losses in educated areas like Dane County to enhance his prospects of victory.
On the surface, Nevada seems to be a reliable blue state, with Democratic candidates winning the past four presidential elections, including a double-digit margin in 2008. However, Trump managed to narrow the margin of defeat to 2.4 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020, leading to fierce competition between Trump and Harris.
Clark County and Washoe County are the two focal points in Nevada. Clark County, home to Las Vegas, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of the state’s population.
Though the Democratic Party had a considerable advantage in Clark County, declining from nearly 15 percentage points in 2012 to 9.4 percentage points in 2020, Trump almost won the state’s second-largest county, Washoe County, in 2016.
Harris can secure Nevada if the Democratic Party regains a double-digit advantage in Clark County; alternatively, Trump’s strategy is to weaken the Democratic Party’s advantage in Clark County. Trump’s proposition of a ‘tax-free tip’ for the service industry resonating locally showcases a strategic move.
(Translated from Central News Agency)