China’s marriage registration numbers have been declining year after year. According to official data from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), in the first three quarters of this year, the total number of marriage registrations nationwide dropped to 4.747 million couples, a decrease of 943,000 couples compared to the same period last year, reaching a new low. Analysts suggest that 2024 will be the year with the lowest number of marriage registrations since 1980, which also indicates a forthcoming decline in the birth rate.
On November 1st, the CCP’s Ministry of Civil Affairs website released the “2024 3rd Quarter Civil Affairs Statistics,” showing that in the first three quarters of this year, there were 4.747 million marriage registrations nationwide, a decrease of 943,000 couples compared to the same period last year when 5.690 million couples registered their marriages.
It is noteworthy that the number of marriage registrations in the first half of this year hit a recent low, decreasing by 498,000 couples compared to the same period last year. This means that only from July to September, there was a significant drop of 445,000 couples registering their marriages.
According to the statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage registrations in China had been steadily declining for many years before rebounding by 2023.
Looking at the yearly data, in 2013, there were 13.469 million marriage registrations in China, which started to decrease annually from 2014 onwards. It dropped below the 10 million mark in 2019, below 8 million in 2021, and down to 6.835 million in 2022, falling below the 7 million mark. However, in 2023, it slightly rebounded to 7.68 million couples.
In the first three quarters, the number of marriage registrations in 2014 was 9.626 million, 8.829 million in 2015, 8.475 million in 2016, 7.893 million in 2017, 7.649 million in 2018, 7.131 million in 2019, 5.894 million in 2020, 5.886 million in 2021, 5.445 million in 2022, with a slight increase in 2023 to 5.69 million.
On November 2nd, the author of “Population Crisis: Reflecting on China’s Family Planning Policy,” He Yafu, analyzed that in the past decade, the number of marriage registrations in the first three quarters basically accounted for 72% to 79% of the whole year.
If the number of marriage registrations in the first three quarters accounts for 72% of the whole year, and the fourth quarter accounts for 28%, then this year will have approximately 6.59 million couples registering their marriages.
If the number of marriage registrations in the first three quarters accounts for 75% of the whole year, and the fourth quarter accounts for 25%, then this year will have around 6.33 million couples registering their marriages.
If the number of marriage registrations in the first three quarters accounts for 79% of the whole year, and the fourth quarter accounts for 21%, then this year will have approximately 6.01 million couples registering their marriages.
Therefore, it is estimated that the total number of marriage registrations for the whole year will fall between 6.01 million and 6.59 million couples, with a median of around 6.3 million couples.
He Yafu believes that it is expected that the total number of marriage registrations for the whole year of 2024 will range from 6.01 million to 6.59 million couples. Even if it reaches the upper limit of 6.59 million couples, it will still be less than the number of marriage registrations in 2022. It is predicted that 2024 will be the year with the lowest number of marriage registrations since 1980, and the marriage rate will also hit a new low. The decrease in the number of marriage registrations this year also indicates a forthcoming drop in the birth rate next year.