The Chinese real estate market continues to remain sluggish. The latest data shows that in the first half of September, following the traditional peak sales season of “Golden September,” transactions for new and second-hand homes remained weak.
According to the research report released by Ke Rui Real Estate, the scale of new home transactions slightly decreased compared to August, but significantly lagged behind the same period last year. In the first 12 days of September, a total of 2.95 million square meters were transacted in 30 key cities, a 6% decrease from the first 12 days of August and an 18% decrease from the same period last year.
The decline was most pronounced in first-tier cities, with Beijing and Shenzhen both showing weak transaction volumes, nearly halving from the same period in August. Second-tier cities showed overall stability in transactions, with improvements seen in cities like Ningbo and Changsha, while cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan continued to experience declining transactions. Third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 19% in transactions compared to the previous period but a 1% decrease year-on-year due to the low base effect.
Regarding second-hand homes, in the first 12 days of September, a total of 2.46 million square meters were transacted in 15 key monitored cities, a 4% decrease from the same period in August but a significant 31% increase year-on-year. Transactions in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen remained resilient, with a stable increase compared to the previous period, while downward trends were evident in cities like Hangzhou and Suzhou, where transaction volumes turned negative compared to the previous period. Cities like Dongguan and Dalian showed notably poor performances, leading the decline in transaction volumes compared to the previous period.
The report indicates that overall, in the first half of September, transactions for both new and second-hand homes in key cities continued to weaken. The total new home transactions in 30 cities decreased by 6% compared to August, while the total volume of second-hand home transactions decreased by around 4%. New home transactions decreased by 18% year-on-year, while second-hand homes showed relative strength with a 31% year-on-year increase.
Looking ahead, taking into account factors such as concentrated performance push in the second half of the month, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in September may exceed that of August. However, due to the weakening effect of favorable policies, the lack of confidence among homebuyers, insufficient supply, and the market’s lack of enthusiasm in pushing listings, the growth in transactions may be very limited. Compared to the same period last year, it is expected that new home transactions will continue to decline by around 10%, while the volume of second-hand home transactions will be slightly higher than the same period last year, but with a continuing narrowing of the growth rate.