On July 15, during the convening of the 20th Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, official media referred to Xi Jinping for the first time as a “reformer”. At the same time, the CCP’s official publication released an article by Xi Jinping emphasizing “self-confidence and self-reliance”, but only mentioning “reform and opening up” five times. Political analysts believe that Xi Jinping has redefined “reform and opening up”, and the tone set at the Third Plenum actually shows his intention to accelerate backwards, aiming to return to the old path of isolationism.
The 20th Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party was held in Beijing on July 15 and lasted for four days. The Third Plenum usually determines the long-term direction affecting the Chinese economy. In history, the Third Plenum has often been used to formulate major economic and policy decisions, but not every time. This Third Plenum was originally scheduled for 2023 but was postponed.
On July 15, the CCP mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency published a lengthy article titled “Reformer Xi Jinping”, describing Xi Jinping’s era as a “new era of reform” and stating “it is now a critical period for speeding up a new round of reform”. The article referred to Xi Jinping as another “outstanding reformer” after Deng Xiaoping, inheriting and carrying forward Deng Xiaoping’s cause, allowing China to “continue the economic miracle” and create the so-called “new form of human civilization”.
Currently, Google cannot find this article by Xinhua News Agency, and only the full text remains on the Wen Wei Po website in Hong Kong. The website reprinted the report from Xinhua News Agency on July 16.
On the same day, Xinhua News Agency also released a documentary titled “Leading a New Journey”, stating that Xi Jinping had been “leading the comprehensive advancement of reform” for more than a decade, despite facing “external pressure” in China, he still insisted on opening up to the outside world.
On the same day that Xinhua News Agency published this lengthy article, the CCP’s official publication “Qiushi” magazine published an article attributed to Xi Jinping titled “We must adhere to self-confidence and self-reliance”. This is an excerpt of Xi Jinping’s discourse from January 2013 to March 2024.
In the article, Xi Jinping reiterated Marxism, stating that the CCP must “forge its own path”, “adhere to independence and self-reliance”, and the so-called four “confidences”, not “copy or transplant, or adopt foreign practices”, and must firmly “hold the fate of development and progress of China in its own hands”.
In this 6,000-word long article, “reform and opening up” was mentioned only five times, while “confidence in the system” was mentioned eight times; “Socialism” was mentioned 29 times, “Party” was mentioned 60 times; and Xi Jinping’s name was mentioned 15 times.
On July 16, the second day of the Third Plenum, Xinhua News Agency published an article titled “Carrying forward the new era of reform and opening up to the end”, stating that since the 18th National Congress of the CCP, Xi Jinping has presided over 72 important meetings, reviewed and approved over 600 reform documents, and required various sectors to introduce more than 3,000 reform plans, demonstrating Xi Jinping’s “way of reform”.
In fact, since the 18th Third Plenum of the CCP in 2013 declared a “comprehensive deepening of reform”, the CCP’s domestic and foreign policy lines in the so-called “new era” during the Xi era have undergone significant changes compared to the periods of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. It is widely believed that the so-called “reform measures” of the Xi era are a “reform in reverse” accelerating backwards.
Political analyst Chen Pokong, who resides in the United States, believes that the phrase “self-confidence and self-reliance”, “not adopting foreign practices” implies that the tone set at the Third Plenum is looking backward rather than forward, indicating a return to isolation and retracing old paths.
On July 17, Chen Pokong told reporters from Daji Yuan that “self-confidence and self-reliance” are synonymous with isolationism, similar to what was proclaimed in the Mao Zedong era as “self-reliance”, meaning being isolated from the international community and world civilization. He said that China under the rule of the CCP has never been self-reliant, many things have been copied, plagiarized, and pirated from the West. In addition, the term “not adopting foreign practices” is adapted from the Chinese idiom “not changing what is old”. “Not changing what is old” metaphorically means being conservative and not adaptable, Xi Jinping’s statement that one should not “adopt foreign practices” implies moving backwards.
Chen Pokong said, “So these eight characters represent that the tone set at the Third Plenum is looking backward rather than forward.”
He also pointed out that during the Third Plenum, the CCP media published a series of articles discussing “reform and opening up” without mentioning Deng Xiaoping at all, while “reform and opening up” is practically Deng Xiaoping’s label.
Chen Pokong believes this has two meanings: one is in terms of the political line, Xi Jinping does not acknowledge Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” policy, but instead wants to redefine “reform and opening up”, which is the “Xi-style reform and opening up”; secondly, Xi Jinping only wants to establish himself and wants to completely deny everything before he took office, suggesting that only his direction after taking office is correct, which is the so-called “reform and opening up”.
Chen Pokong also stated that Xi Jinping has convened 72 “reform” meetings, issued over 600 documents in the past 11 years, but China’s economy is in its current state, indicating that his “reform and opening up” policy has been set, with little hope for future changes.
Chinese-Canadian writer Sheng Xue, currently residing in Canada, told reporters from Daji Yuan that Xi Jinping’s governance strategy aligns with Mao Zedong’s “wave the red flag all over the world” ideology, only the way the ideas are presented differs. Xi Jinping has avoided mentioning Deng Xiaoping since taking office because he believes Deng Xiaoping succumbed to the West and begged for civilization from the modern world, completely disagreeing with Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” policy.
Sheng Xue believes that Xi Jinping is reversing course, pushing for an ideal communist state of fundamentalism. This approach will not only continue to make many Chinese suffer but will also make the international community see the true face of the Communist Party.
On July 15, the CCP released a series of economic data, including the GDP growth rate for the first half of 2024, which was lower than expected. Due to the CCP’s history of falsifying data, the actual situation of the Chinese economy may be more severe, but it is difficult for outsiders to know the specific true data.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China on July 15 showed that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024 grew by 4.7% year-on-year, a 0.6 percentage point slowdown from the first quarter.
The GDP for the first half of the year was 61.7 trillion yuan (approximately $8.49 trillion), calculated at constant prices, showing a 5.0% year-on-year growth.
The NBS news release stated that the latest economic data shows that China’s economy is running “generally stable with progress made.” However, the latest economic data shows that several indicators are showing growth followed by a decline.
For example, industrial value added across China increased by 6.0% year-on-year in the first half of the year, but in June, it only increased by 5.3% year-on-year; consumption and investment situations were similar, with the total retail sales of consumer goods in China amounting to 23.5969 trillion yuan (approximately $3.248 trillion) in the first half of the year, a 3.7% year-on-year increase, but the growth rate in June was 2.0% year-on-year, down by 0.12% month-on-month.
The real estate market in China shows no sign of stopping its decline. Real estate development investment in China dropped by 10.1% in the first half of the year. The national sales area of newly constructed houses in China decreased by 19.0% year-on-year, and the sales value of newly constructed commercial housing dropped by 25.0%.
In June, the sales price of new residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 3.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month; the sales prices of new residential buildings in second and third-tier cities dropped by 4.5% and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively, with declines expanding by 0.8 and 0.5 percentage points over the previous month.
The decline in prices for existing homes was even more severe. In June, the sales prices of existing homes in first-tier cities fell by 9.0% year-on-year, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the sales prices of existing homes in second and third-tier cities dropped by 7.9% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, with declines expanding by 0.4 percentage points in both cases compared to the previous month.
With China’s economy on a downward trend, society is facing a serious crisis, and the Chinese people feel despair towards the authorities. Following the terms “involution” and “lying flat”, people describe the CCP regime as having entered a phase they call “historical garbage time”. This term originates from the concept of Austrian-American economist Ludwig von Mises and is considered the stage when a segment of history strays from economic laws, individuals have no power to change it, and eventually leads to failure. Since 2023, China’s economy has stagnated, and the senior CCP leadership frequently demands to “sing the bright economic chorus”. Recently, the term “historical garbage time” has sparked discussions and become a popular term, sparking panic among the authorities.